Ohio State has gone from a playoff contender to a team fighting to save its season. Two losses in eight games have pushed the Buckeyes to the brink, leaving little room for another setback. Saturday’s showdown against Oregon could determine whether their College Football Playoff hopes stay alive or take another major hit.
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The Buckeyes sit at No. 12 in the first CFP rankings after last week’s 30-18 loss to USC. With four regular-season games remaining, they are already outside the projected 12-team field. Ahead of their matchup with No. 23 Oregon, former Ohio State great Cris Carter believes the Buckeyes can still turn things around.
“I think Ohio State’s going to win the rest of the game. They’re going to finish 10-2. They’re going to go to the Big Ten Championship. They’ll be playing the undefeated UCLA. And then Ohio State gets a chance to be one of the top four seeds in the college football playoff,” Carter said, according to CEO Mekka Don’s X post on November 6.
But Carter isn’t ignoring the pressure Ohio State faces. He made that clear with a warning: “But Ohio State has no margin of error.”
And the rankings explain why. According to the NCAA’s November 4 breakdown, Ohio State is the first team outside the projected playoff field, with No. 25 Boise State taking the final projected spot as the highest-ranked Group of 6 team. Tennessee and LSU sit directly behind the Buckeyes at Nos. 13 and 14, making another loss potentially devastating to their playoff chances.
What makes the situation more frustrating is Ohio State’s 19-15 win over Indiana. Despite losing to the Buckeyes, the Hoosiers are ranked No. 4 and projected to receive a first-round bye. Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss also sit ahead of Ohio State despite having two losses apiece.
Carter also had plenty to say about Ohio State’s performance against USC. The Buckeyes surrendered 30 points, and he criticized their tackling and defensive execution. He also discussed how money, agents and NFL Draft decisions have complicated the college football landscape for players and coaches.
Still, Carter believes Ohio State can finish strong, particularly as freshman quarterback Luke Fahey gains more experience.
“Also, this young quarterback, in another month, he’s going to be a different guy. I mean, he threw for 200 yards and didn’t have a whole bunch of help,” Carter said.
Fahey stepped in for injured starter Julian Sayin, who is recovering from a throwing-arm injury. In his first career start against USC, Fahey completed 21 of 38 passes for 260 yards and a touchdown. Oregon presents another significant challenge for the freshman.
Inside the locker room, Ryan Day’s players understand what is at stake. The USC defeat knocked Ohio State from No. 2 to No. 11 in the AP poll, and junior linebacker Payton Pierce believes every remaining game carries playoff-level pressure.
“It’s pretty much playoff time now for us cuz we can’t lose,” Pierce said. “And so there’s a sense of urgency, and intensity, and focus.”
Running back Isaiah West echoed that urgency, acknowledging what another defeat could mean for the Buckeyes. Day has also emphasized correcting the mistakes that cost Ohio State against USC.
Those mistakes were costly. Ohio State outgained USC 464-338 and held the ball for nearly 19 minutes longer, yet scored just one touchdown in four red-zone trips. Eleven penalties for 75 yards added to the damage, turning a statistical advantage into a 12-point loss.
Oregon has enough talent to make things difficult
Ohio State cannot afford to overlook the Ducks. Oregon entered the season with major expectations but has slipped to 5-3 after three losses. Still, the team remains No. 23 in the CFP rankings and showed signs of improvement with its win over Northwestern last week.
Former Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer also believes Oregon has the talent to cause problems in Columbus. Speaking on the Triple Option Podcast, he warned against taking the Ducks lightly.
“You tell me Oregon doesn’t have the roster to come in and beat Ohio State? You’re out of your mind,” Meyer said.
The Ducks have playmakers on offense, including wide receiver Dakorien Moore, and have shown they can put points on the board against strong opponents. They also beat USC 41-27 earlier this season, something Ohio State will have to keep in mind after struggling against the Trojans.
That result gives Meyer’s warning added weight. Oregon has already demonstrated that it can beat a USC team Ohio State struggled to contain. If the Buckeyes cannot improve their tackling and prevent explosive plays, the Ducks have the personnel to exploit those weaknesses. And with Fahey still adjusting to the starting role, Ohio State cannot afford to waste scoring opportunities against another ranked opponent.
For the Buckeyes, Saturday is about more than bouncing back from one disappointing result. A victory would strengthen their playoff resume and keep Carter’s predicted 10-2 finish within reach. A defeat would make their postseason path considerably more complicated.
The Buckeyes host Oregon at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, November 7, at 3:30 p.m. ET.