For the first time since 2005, ESPN College GameDay is set to roll into the Steel City as No. 7 Notre Dame faces No. 22 Pittsburgh, hoping the Panthers can keep their magical run alive. But college football insider Matt Zenitz warns that Pittsburgh’s fairy-tale season may be hanging by a thread.

Recently, on November 14, Matt Zenitz took to X to share a cautionary note for bettors. “Pitt standout kicker Trey Butkowski is expected to miss tomorrow’s game against No. 9 Notre Dame due to an illness, sources tell @CBSSports. Is 19 of 21 on field goals this season.” He said. Outside of their true freshman quarterback, Trey Butkowski is the most clutch player on the squad. His absence could totally cost Pitt the game, no joke. These Notre Dame games are always nail-biters, often coming down to the final seconds. With Butkowski, Pitt had a major weapon, knowing they could count on him for points when it mattered most.

This is a massive punch in the face type of liability for the Panthers, especially if you look at his season and what he has done as a true freshman. He’s been money from the get-go, hitting 19 out of 21 field goals and 40 out of 41 extra points, and leads the nation with the highest field-goal success rate. He also rocketed a 47-yarder the other day. Plus, he even set a new school record with 16 field goals in a row.

That 90.5% field goal percentage is a coach’s dream. Without him, that security blanket is gone, and the coaches will be sweating every time they have to attempt a kick. They’ll likely have to roll with redshirt sophomore Sam Carpenter, who has zero college field goal attempts under his belt. Any missed kick could be the exact reason they lose.

The situation gets even worse when you look at Notre Dame’s own kicking issues this year—they’ve missed extra points and field goals. With Butkowski, Pitt had a clear advantage, but now that’s completely gone. Instead of having a reliable specialist, Pitt is now in the same boat as Notre Dame: relying on an untested backup.

So, the Pitt offense basically has to be perfect now. They need to punch it into the end zone for touchdowns instead of settling for field goals. The pressure on the offense is massive, and if they stall out in the red zone, the Panthers won’t have their usual dependable kicker to save the day.

What does Vegas think about this matchup?

In this game, Notre Dame is favored to win by 12.5 points. Which means they’re expected to beat Pittsburgh by more than 12 points. But don’t be surprised if Notre Dame wins by 18 or more. However, based on odds and moneyline, the total points scored by both teams is somewhere near 54.5, so the game could end with a final score like Notre Dame 34, Pittsburgh 21.

Notre Dame has been on a roll lately, winning seven straight games, and they’re 2-1 when playing away this season. Pittsburgh, with the same 7-2 record, has also been playing well. They have won five games in a row and are doing great at home with a 4-1 record. In their most recent games, Notre Dame easily beat Navy 49-10, while Pittsburgh won 35-20 against Stanford. Despite Pittsburgh’s good form, Notre Dame is still expected to win comfortably.

Looking at how these teams have done against the spread (the point margin set by sportsbooks). Notre Dame has covered 4 out of 9 times this season, meaning they haven’t always met the expectations. Flip side, Pittsburgh has been much better, covering 7 out of 9 times. So while Notre Dame is the favorite, Pittsburgh has been more consistent in beating the spread this year.