WSU transfer John Mateer’s 3000+ yards and 29 TDs already had On3 JD PicKell give the “QB advantage to Oklahoma Sooners in a lot of those games” before he ever threw a ball in Norman. Now, with Brent Venables’ boy paired up with old OC Ben Arbuckle, he’s appearing in almost everybody’s top-10 QB list. So, a fair share of expectations and comparisons with a Heisman winner and No. 1 pick could be easily sniffed out from miles away.

When one NFL scout says he sees “several parallels” between Mateer’s game and that of Mahomes and Baker Mayfield, you pause. And then you double-check the tape. And yeah—it’s all there. The off-platform throws. The arm angles. The moxie. But it’s the Mayfield comp that’s really got people leaning forward. According to NFL Rookie Watch, “John Mateer somehow looks like a more athletic CLONE of Baker Mayfield.” And it’s not just one scout buying in. Multiple NFL insiders reportedly believe Mateer could leap into top-10 draft pick territory with a strong 2025 campaign.

One anonymous SEC coach even went so far as to say John Mateer was “a more attractive transfer QB than Cam Ward was coming out of Washington State.” That’s saying something—Ward is now a Titan and was once a Heisman dark horse under the very same OC who’s now dialing up plays for Mateer. And those numbers? They’re not whispers. They scream. In 2024, Mateer threw for 3,100+ yards, rushed for 826 more, totaled 44 touchdowns, and only 7 interceptions. It’s a stat line that doesn’t just belong in the Big 12—it commands attention on Sundays.

His dynamic rushing ability makes him a nightmare in RPO packages and red zone reads. But what’s made scouts drool is that his explosiveness doesn’t come at the cost of efficiency. That’s where Arbuckle enters the chat. His track record developing QBs is already well-established, dating back to his time with Austin Reed (now with the Lions) and Cam Ward. Both showcased top-tier dead-end throw rate (DETR) percentages, a crucial stat in the NFL world for tracking decision-making under pressure. Reed posted a 52.9% DETR at Western Kentucky. Ward was at 48.87%. Mateer? He came in at a scorching 44.96%—placing him solidly in that “good-to-great” tier, with room to improve.

The numbers also explain why sportsbooks list Mateer’s Heisman odds at +2500—a legitimate bet, but one that will demand the Sooners put together a high-caliber campaign. “That price seems like a fair one to me,” a CFB insider said. “Although a lot would have to go right in order for Mateer to find himself in New York City this December.” His passing efficiency may be the least of the concerns; the real question will be whether that rushing production can carry over in the SEC gauntlet. Defenders are faster, fronts are deeper, and windows close in half the time. John Mateer might not need to match Jalen Hurts or Kyler Murray stride for stride, but he’ll need to flash similar playmaking ability if he wants to be more than just another QB in the lineage.

Even if Mateer falls short of the absurdly high bar set by Mayfield, Murray, and Hurts—all of whom became first-round NFL picks and Heisman finalists—there’s still plenty of daylight in front of him.

John Mateer’s mission: W’s first, statues later

Every time John Mateer strolls past Heisman Park on Oklahoma’s campus, he gets that goosebumps moment. After all, the place is packed with legends. “There’s, what, seven statues there? It’s pretty cool,” Mateer said. One of those belongs to Kyler Murray — the Sooners’ most recent Heisman winner back in 2018. It’s an inspiring sight for any quarterback with big dreams. But for Mateer, it’s about something bigger than chasing hardware.

“That’s something that can happen as an outcome of the process you do every day,” he said, emphasizing the daily grind over flashy headlines. He knows the Heisman is a byproduct — not the mission. “I want to win games,” he said simply. “It would be really cool, it would. I’m not going to say it won’t. But winning games is most important. Then we’ll see what happens after that.”

Since his arrival in Norman this January, Mateer has already brought a jolt of energy to the Sooners’ locker room. Teammates and coaches alike can feel the culture shift coming — one that reminds them of the golden years led by names like Murray, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Bradford. The confidence is growing, and so is the swag.