When he first came to Bloomington, Curt Cignetti admittedly said he tried to figure out if Indian’s fan base was dead or just on life support. Indiana football has lived in obscurity for most of its 130-plus years. Before he arrived ahead of the 2024 season, the program had piled up 713 losses. But things have changed now as they get ready for the Miami showdown inside Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Support for the Hoosiers became visible in downtown Miami a day before kickoff.

On January 18, sports reporter Tricia Whitaker posted a video of a massive crowd gathered for the Big Red Warm Up, with fans singing the Miami fight song against the skyline. Cheerleaders danced. The scene looked like a civic rally of a city spending its Sunday preparing for a Monday night title game. 

Amid Miami’s hype, Curt Cignetti drew surprising support on Sunday before the title game. During a recent joint presser with Mario Cristobal, the Hoosiers’ head coach spoke about Indiana’s “tight-knit team” unity. This amplified the pro-Hoosier buzz despite the road environment. Cignetti also praised the unexpected support from the fans and their turnout, along with alumni backing from Mark Cuban, calling it transformative.

This site is technically neutral. But in reality, Miami’s routines will be unchanged. The Hurricanes will use their normal locker room. They know the sight lines, the turf, and the travel patterns. Nothing about Monday will feel foreign to them. Despite that, Indiana enters as an 8.5-point favorite. Can familiarity alone move the needle as much as emotion might suggest? That’s the tension between environment and expectation before the Monday night showdown.

Ticket data has added another layer. SeatGeek reports that 37 percent of tickets were purchased in Florida, while 20 percent came from Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio combined. That points to a strong Midwest turnout, even with Miami fans able to drive to the stadium. Even so, SeatGeek’s Chris Leyden cautioned against assuming a dominant Miami crowd. He noted that demand from Indiana and Illinois has been significant and could lead to a fairly even split. 

Historically, this situation is rare but not without precedent. This will be the ninth national championship of the BCS and CFP eras, where one team is from the same state as the host site. LSU has famously benefited from playing title games in New Orleans, appearing in every championship during eras when the Superdome hosted. In those games, in-state teams are 4-4. Miami would take that record and raise the stakes further, becoming the first team to play a title game in its actual home stadium.

So how much is this really worth? Sportsbooks are treating it carefully. Neil Walsh, SVP of Sportsbook at Hard Rock Bet, explained that Miami’s familiarity does carry value, but not the full weight of a true home game. The crowd will be mixed, and the sidelines are neutral. For this game, the edge is at roughly two points, compared to three or four for a standard home environment. Without the home-field narrative, this could look closer to a double-digit spread.

Miami vs. Indiana national title game projections

Beyond the environment, Miami has reason to believe this game is competitive on the field. With Carson Beck at QB, the Hurricanes have won and covered nine straight games against ranked opponents and are 7-0 against the spread versus Top 25 teams. Their defensive line features two projected first-round picks and produces the fourth-most sacks per game in the FBS. 

That strength aligns directly with Indiana’s recent vulnerability, as Heisman QB Fernando Mendoza has been sacked an average of 2.5 times over his last six games after just 0.8 over his first nine. The Miami native has eight touchdown passes and just five incompletions during the CFP run.

Indiana is 15-0 and dismantled Alabama and Oregon by a combined 94-25 in the playoffs. They are 5-0 against the spread versus ranked teams, all against top-10 opponents. Indiana ranks second nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense while playing the ninth-hardest schedule. The Hoosiers also lead the nation in turnover margin and rank among the most disciplined teams by penalty rate.

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As you can see, Indiana owns consistency and dominance. Miami owns familiarity, momentum, and a city that has rallied loudly. The 2026 CFP National Championship kicks off on Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET. And for Mario Cristobal, supported in a way few underdogs ever are, the stage could not be more revealing.