Notre Dame enters the 2026 season carrying the heaviest expectations of Marcus Freeman’s tenure. The Fighting Irish won ten straight games to close out last year, only to miss the top tier of postseason seeding after a brutal early stretch. Even with star running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price off to the NFL, Notre Dame still holds a No. 5 preseason ranking. C.J. Carr looks ready to take over at quarterback, and the defense remains world-class, so talent is not the question in South Bend.

However, according to CBS Sports analyst Brad Crawford, Freeman’s biggest challenge is making sure history doesn’t repeat itself.

“Where I do have an issue is Marcus Freeman cannot afford to go 10-2 again,” Brad Crawford said when asked what’s the biggest worry for Notre Dame heading into this season. “Not with this schedule. They play SMU, BYU, and Miami. That’s the three teams inside our CBS Sports top 20 to begin the season that we think are going to be elite. Notre Dame has to win two of three of those games and finish 11-1 or better to get in that CFP top 12.”

And this is exactly where the schedule becomes a big factor. Sports Illustrated ranks Notre Dame’s Strength of Schedule (SOS) all the way down at No. 112. Phil Steele has them around No. 65-66 nationally. So, because of how their schedule shakes out this year, a two-loss season just won’t cut it, and it most definitely won’t be strong enough to get them into the top 12.

Get the Essentially CFB Newsletter. Rivalries, rankings, recruiting, coaching moves, and game action nationwide — your complete college football briefing.

The disappointment is still fresh because finishing 10-2 left them completely out of the postseason. The Irish started their season 0-2, losing 5 points combined to the Texas A&M Aggies and the Miami Hurricanes. Even though they went on a great run afterward, being an independent without a conference championship game meant they got jumped in the rankings by conference winners on Selection Day.

Thankfully, the newly locked-in playoff agreement changes things in Notre Dame’s favor. Now, as long as the Irish avoid another 10-2 season and finish inside the top 12 of the final committee rankings, they are guaranteed a playoff spot.

Notre Dame literally has to finish 11-1 or better. And unlike last year, they have a much better chance of starting 2-0 this time around.

Unlike last season, the Irish aren’t opening with two roadblocks. They should have a legitimate opportunity to get off to a 2-0 start and build some momentum before the schedule really starts playing some fair competition.

While most fans have the high-profile showdown against Miami circled on their calendars, the real danger on this schedule involves a long road trip west. Notre Dame has to travel to Provo to face Kalani Sitake’s BYU Cougars at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Playing at altitude against a physical Big 12 contender makes Provo arguably the single most dangerous trap on the entire Irish calendar.

They’ll have this one circled months in advance, and they’ll be throwing everything they have at the Irish. So, at the end of the day, Notre Dame can afford to lose either BYU or Miami, but not both.

Because this time around, if Marcus Freeman’s team finishes 10-2 again, the playoff committee may not hesitate for a second before sending the Irish right back home.