Texas Tech is drawing a line in the sand. But suddenly, Joey McGuire’s team is in the middle of the battle of who controls CFB’s future. While the Big 12 and the rest of the Power 5 programs force teams to come on board with the House settlement, the Red Raiders are pushing back on the idea. It transpired after facing a reality check: in the NIL era, the agreement is not a protection but their biggest threat.

“Texas Tech University is in strong support of the House Settlement, and want rules to be established by the College Sports Commission that will bring some measure of order to the current chaotic situation in college sports, Board chairman Cody Campbell said.

However, these rules must comply with State Law and University bylaws, be practical and reasonable, and account for the input of member institutions. We will not sign the current form of the agreement, as indicated in the advisory letter from our General Counsel.”

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Joey McGuire’s team received an 11-page document from the Power 4 conference to sign a new College Sports Commission agreement, which requires them to cooperate and follow all decisions. After reviewing it, Texas Tech’s top lawyer didn’t put pen to paper.

They cited significant flaws that would force universities to cooperate with investigations, accept penalties, and also prevent them from suing the NCAA over athlete-pay rules. They established those pointers in the House settlement. Moreover, Eric D. Bentley, the Red Raiders’ general counsel, highlights this in his memo.

As per Bentley, the deal gives too much power to the CSC: “(The agreement) requires the University, its representatives (which is defined too broadly), student-athletes, and associated entities and individuals to comply with not only the current rules, policies, and procedures, but the University must also agree to comply with ‘any other policies and procedures that the CSC may from time to time adopt.'”

This essentially means CSC can create new rules, apply them, and may also penalize Texas Tech for any mistakes, but they cannot defend their rights. What’s even worse is that the agreement could punish Joey McGuire’s team even if someone outside the program, such as the state’s attorney general, takes an action that doesn’t suit CSC.

Every blame will be directed straight at them, which appears unfair on paper.

Following the memo matters even more when considering Texas Tech’s NIL expenditures. Campbell helped them to fund massive NIL deals through the now-disbanded Matador Club collective. They have spent around $25 million on football this year and are likely to exceed $55 million across all sports.

They made all these moves before July 1 to avoid the CSC’s new NIL approval system, which limits programs from exceeding the $20.5 million revenue-share cap. If they sign this agreement, the program will be skating on thin ice.

According to CSC, signing this agreement is the “logical next step” for enforcing House settlement rules; however, for now, Texas Tech is pushing back strongly. With that battle, let’s explore the Red Raiders’ playoff chances.

Joey McGuire’s Texas Tech playoff chances

Texas Tech entered week 13 in a great spot, as they didn’t play and were on a bye. Nonetheless, the Big 12 race remains under control, as the PFSN playoff predictor gives them an 89% chance to make the title game. It already puts them in a solid position with a 10-1 record.

Furthermore, their win against BYU added another layer to it. The only way they are missing the Big 12 title is if they lose against West Virginia, and that’s highly unlikely. It’s a calculated guess, knowing they have averaged over 30 points in the last four weeks.

Playoff chances remain strong with 85% odds, and even if they lose the Big 12 game, they might still enter the playoffs as an 11-2 team, with a top-5 rank that is hard to ignore. BYU is most likely to be their Big 12 opponent, and they need to come all guns blazing.

One mistake can result in a loss similar to the one Arizona State experienced.