When the Tennessee Volunteers lost Joey Aguilar’s 8th year of eligibility, Josh Heupel’s chances of making the playoffs went from “probably” to “never mind.” After all, Aguilar took the Vols’ offense to first in scoring (39.8) and second in total offense (466.3) in the stacked division of the SEC. But, according to a Vols insider, this might actually be a blessing in disguise for Josh Heupel, ironically.

“I think Joey Aguilar not being available is the best thing for the long-term health of this quarterback group,” Brooks Austin said. “There’s a window of opportunity for us to have excellent quarterback play tied with a good roster to go on and compete for a title. That’s the whole goal, right? And we also know, because we cover college football, we watch college football, odds are, for young football players, that window of excellent quarterback play is going to be coming in year two or, better yet, year three in the system.”

In college football, quarterbacks often make their biggest jump in Year 2 or Year 3 in the same system. Look no further than Hendon Hooker. After riding the bench for 3–4 years between Virginia Tech and Tennessee, when Joe Milton got injured in the second game of the season, Hooker took over the gunslinger job and never looked back. In his 2021 season, he threw for almost 3,000 yards and 31 touchdowns with just 3 picks.

The next season, he threw for over 3,135 yards and 27 TDs with just 2 picks. The only reason he made such a jump is that the Vols gave a shot to a Year 4 guy. According to Brooks, that’s the model Tennessee wants to follow again. That’s why George MacIntyre, being a sophomore, is important. If he’s going to be the guy, you want him gaining experience now so that by next season or the year after, he’s playing his best football. You don’t want to delay that evaluation.

And then there’s Faizon Brandon, a five-star talent coming up behind him. In today’s college football world, you can’t wait forever to decide on a quarterback, let alone a 5-star. It’s kind of like the NFL rookie contract timeline—by Year 2 or 3, you need to know if he’s the future or not. So Austin’s point is simple: losing Aguilar forces Tennessee to start that clock now. It might feel risky in the short term since they don’t have an experienced QB in the locker room, but in the long run, it’s going to pay dividends one way or another.

With that said, will the Vols end up with a losing season this time?

Tennessee’s expectation without Aguilar’s magic

Josh Heupel has to be one of the Power 4 head coaches who has never sniffed a losing season. The former Heisman runner-up always stays in the line between 8 and 11 wins. The Vols have had two 10-win seasons in his five-year tenure, along with one 9-win season. This year could end very differently for Heupel.

Because the quarterback room is so young, expectations are a bit of a roller coaster. With Aguilar, you pretty much know you were getting at least 9 or 10 wins, but now the range is wider.

If one of these young stars clicks early, most preferably with Faizon, Tennessee could grab a playoff spot if the football gods are kind. The betting market has set Tennessee’s regular-season win total at 8.5, considering they got Georgia Tech, Texas, and Auburn in the first month or so. Then again, you don’t see many freshman QBs or first-time starters take their program to the playoffs in the SEC. The last QB to do that was Nico Iamaleava, who apparently got carried by the top-four Vols defense to the playoffs.

On3’s Brett McMurphy has Tennessee slated for the Gator Bowl. Even with the question mark at quarterback, the rest of the roster is stacked. So, nobody can totally count the Vols out for now, at least.

The defense expects to be one of the best in the SEC, especially in the DB room. Mind you, Heupel’s system is famous for making quarterbacks look like superstars regardless of their age. The 2026 season is going to be all about seeing if Heupel’s “quarterback whisperer” reputation holds up. It might be a bumpy ride at first, but the future feels bright because the team is finally building around its next long-term face of the franchise.