Fernando Mendoza had transferred from California to Indiana with one goal in mind. Becoming the best B1G Ten quarterback. Under Curt Cignetti’s coaching, he’s achieving that goal every week. But there is more in store for the Hoosiers’ QB1 concerning his future in the pros.

Draft experts Field Yates has Mendoza going with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Now, the recent ESPN poll points towards a similar course. According to 25 NFL executives and scouts, Mendoza is leading the QB1 race with 13 votes.

No other QB is in close competition with Fernando. The second most votes received is eight by LaNorris Sellers. In the 2025 Draft, the rookie scale contract for the No. 1 pick was $48 million. With Mendoza’s latest spree, he seems closer to raking in that amount.

Interestingly, six weeks ago, ESPN ran a similar poll. With Mendoza listed as a potential riser, with a 12% predicted chance to go No. 1. “He’s the one to circle that could be a bigger riser,” an NFC scout had stated. “And Cignetti has a great track record with transfer QBs.” Amid the volatility that the 2025 QBs have faced over the week, the rankings have changed.

It’s his accuracy and accurate darts that have earned him popularity among the NFL executives. “He has ‘wow’ throws and playmaking passer ability. He can anticipate post-snap,” one scout told ESPN. Over the weeks, Mendoza has a completion rate of 72.3%, with just four interceptions. His QB rating of 90.1 ranks No. 3 across college football. Another NFL Scout complimented his accuracy and pocket presence. “He’s decisive, and he sees everything well. He’s got accuracy down the field and is very tough in the pocket.”

In his first start for Cignetti after transferring from Cal, he has led his roster to a straight nine wins for 25 touchdowns and four scores on the ground. Although not a dual threat, his ability to remain calm under pressure and deliver accurate throws has been praised. Against Iowa, Mendoza had just thrown an interception in the fourth quarter. It was a tie, 13-13. However, in the next possession, a 49-yard game-winning TD pass saved the day.

With less than 2 minutes on the clock, on 3rd & 10, Mendoza threw a 49-yard pass to Elijah Sarratt. What made the play intriguing was Iowa bringing in a house blitz on second down. So, Cignetti employed a seven-man protection. As the ball snapped, Mendoza delivered the ball to Elijah’s hands.

Is Fernando Mendoza a top NFL pick?

Cignetti’s QB1 has received the highest vote, but that does not make him a potential top pick in the 2026 Draft.  “While Mendoza is the top vote-getter, he has yet to establish himself as a no-brainer No. 1 overall pick, ” Pete Thamel wrote. “He is trending that way, but there is not yet conviction behind those projections.”

On the other hand, it is not certain that Mendoza would jump to the pro league yet. Currently, in his junior season, he still has one year of eligibility remaining in his collegiate career. Analyst Todd McShay briefly touched on that subject on his show, saying that Fernando Mendoza “is believed to be leaving after this year, but it’s not a lock.”

However, speculations and conversations regarding his prospects have never left the chat. Analyst Field Yates has had Mendoza going No. 1 overall, picked by the New Orleans Saints. “We have talked at length about the skill set that he brings to the table – superior accuracy, excellent arm strength, has some mobility as well,” he said per On3.

Presently, Indiana is facing a three-game stretch against Penn State, Wisconsin, and Purdue, which do not pose a serious threat to Indiana, affecting Mendoza’s chances.