Ole Miss and Miami are chasing unfamiliar territory in the College Football Playoff. With zero combined CFP appearances entering this season, their Fiesta Bowl matchup marks a rare first for both programs. While oddsmakers slightly favor Miami, Fox Sports analyst Colin Cowherd sees the Rebels pulling the upset if one critical condition holds.

“I always like underdogs if the underdog is built to play from behind, and we just watched Ole Miss,” said Colin Cowherd on the January 06 episode of The Herd. “They’re absolutely built to play from behind because then Trinidad Chambliss can do a little off-script stuff. I always think underdogs get in trouble when they’re forced. 

“Ole Miss can throw it if they’re forced to or they want to. They’re fine at throwing the football. So they’re built to be outplayed for three quarters and come roaring back and win. I do like Miami. I think Miami is the most physical. I hate to use the word, but it’s the most physically violent team I’ve seen. That’s what the Buckeyes were last year, and they beat people up physically.”

Cowherd’s verdict comes down to the battle between Miami’s defensive line and Ole Miss’s offensive line surrounding Trinidad Chambliss.

If you take a look at their season so far, Miami has a combined 12 sacks in playoff wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State, and leads the nation with 46 throughout the season. On the other hand, the Rebels have kept Chambliss mostly clean, and the QB has escaped pressure most of the season.

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The Rebels’ O-Line allowed just 1.3 sacks per game, ranking in the top 20 nationally. However, Ohio State, which ranks ahead of Ole Miss, allowed six sacks to Miami in the quarterfinals game, resulting in a loss. However, Chambliss is sacked on only 3.1% of pass plays, ranking seventh nationally.

With that being said, the results come down to this: If Miami struggles to affect Trinidad Chambliss in the pocket, the Rebels win. If the Rebels can’t protect their quarterback against defensive ends, the Hurricanes win.

Ole Miss and Miami’s College Football Playoff run

The Rebels reached the CFP semifinals just weeks after coaching changes, as Lane Kiffin left the program for LSU days before their first CFP game. DC Pete Golding was promoted to the HC role, and they bounce back stronger, irrespective of the assistant coach’s availability.

Ole Miss started their postseason, crushing the No. 11 Tulane Green Wave 41-10 in the first round before outperforming their conference defense, the Georgia Bulldogs, by 39-34 in a Sugar Bowl thriller. Chambliss led an Ole Miss offense that put up 473 yards of offense against Georgia, as he threw for 362 yards and two scores.

On the other hand, the Hurricanes entered the playoffs with seeding controversies. However, they overcame a comparatively tougher CFP schedule. The Canes first defeated the No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies by 10-3 and went on to upset the defending national champions, the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes, in the Cotton Bowl. Miami pressured the Heisman finalist Julian Sayin five times in the game and picked him off twice, including a 72-yard pick-six from defensive back Keionte Scott.

Despite a completely different playoff journey, both will be unlikely national championship participants at the national championship game.