Texas star QB Arch Manning entered the 2025 season with huge hype. He was predicted to be the Heisman winner, leading Texas to a national title and then becoming the No. 1 pick in the draft. But his early-season struggles put all of that to bed. He did improve in the latter half of the season, but not enough to convince ESPN’s Mel Kiper that he is ready to become the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.

“There’s still a lot to work on, a lot to really shore up and refine for Arch Manning,” said Kiper during his August 3 appearance on First Draft with Field Yates. “But the talent’s undeniable. Obviously, that name on the back of that jersey 16 with Manning, the size, the speed, the toughness, and obviously the arm strength. He’s got everything you want.”

In 2025, Manning didn’t play as expected, and that put him under immense criticism. In the season opener against OSU, he recorded 17 of 30 for 130 yards. He had some bad highlights in games against Florida, where he was sacked six times.

In the first five games of that season, he racked up 5 interceptions. Which is why Kiper thinks Manning needs to work on his completion rate to improve his accuracy.

“He’s got to be more accurate, Field. You’ve got to hit every throw and the easy throws, and even the ball placement on some throws when they were completed was a little off,” added Kiper.

“But he’s got to improve accuracy and ball placement. And if he does that, he can get that complete.”

Arch Manning’s completion rate was around 61% last season. To his defense, not all of it was his fault, as the O-Line was not all that great. Even the WRs were not helping as they dropped 22 catches.

In the NFL, the 60-61% mark is considered a lack of accuracy. Even Manning’s short-yardage accuracy isn’t like an NFL-ready QB.

Manning has all the tools to be a great QB; even late in the 2025 season, he flashed brilliance, and his numbers backed that up. He finished the campaign with 3,163 passing yards and 399 rushing yards. That featured him at the top of the draft board of Fox Sports and Bleacher Report for the 2027 NFL Draft.

But ESPN’s Mel Kiper believes he needs to improve in a few areas to be at that level. He has to complete 65 to 70% passes to grab scouts’ attention. And this season, Texas has weapons around the QB. The Longhorns brought in transfer WR Cam Coleman from Auburn, along with returning WRs Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V. Then they have transfer RBs like Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers, left tackle Trevor Goosby, and so on.

Now, Arch Manning has to showcase his full potential as Texas’s undisputed 2026 starting QB to be a top pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. The Texas head coach has confidence in his QB.

“He’s doing great, man. Like, I’m really—I’m so proud of him. Why? Because, you know, anytime you have that name on the back of your jersey, that carries so much weight,” Steve Sarkisian said of Arch Manning.