The ghost of past misfires continues to haunt college football analysts. As programs reset for the 2025 season, traditional powerhouses have overhauled their rosters, leaning heavily on the transfer portal to fill gaps left by NFL departures and underwhelming campaigns. Last year, Paul Finebaum labeled the Indiana Hoosiers and SMU Mustangs as the most overhyped teams headed into the season, predictions that didn’t age well. This time, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has spotlighted different names he suspects may not live up to expectations.

Finebaum, a longtime SEC commentator, had little faith in Indiana and SMU in 2024, but placed confidence in Alabama and Ole Miss, two teams that ultimately missed the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. Indiana shocked critics with an 11-1 finish, while SMU notched 11 wins, their second-highest single-season total in program history (only behind their 1982 campaign). “I’m sorry I did that,” Finebaum admitted later, reflecting on the accuracy of his preseason takes

On May 22, ESPN’s Bill Connelly published his post-spring SP+ rankings for the 2025 college football season. The SP+ model—his proprietary system- ranks teams based on three weighted factors: returning production, recent recruiting classes, and overall program performance over the past few seasons. Unsurprisingly, defending national champions Ohio State sit at No. 1, followed by Alabama, Penn State, and other playoff staples like Georgia, Texas, Notre Dame, and Oregon.

Connelly appeared on the May 29 episode of the 1080 The FAN podcast to discuss his rankings. One of the two hosts asked Bill about teams that may not do justice to their current place on his list. “Every year, we have one of these teams [that] start near the top of the list, and then they fade or sink like a stone. The numbers spit it out. They give you the top 10. Who’s the most fraudulent team in your SP+ top 10 right now?” Bill was asked.

Surprisingly, Connelly’s first ‘fraudulent’ team isn’t even in the current top 10. He talks about Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss, who had a topsy-turvy 2024, barely missing the playoffs after having a 9-3 record (the same as Alabama and South Carolina). Their exclusion from the final 12-team list sent the head coach into an online tweetstorm against the committee. “I was a huge Ole Miss advocate last year. I thought if they had sneaked into the playoffs, they really could have done a lot of damage,” said the ESPN analyst.

What changed for them this year? To start with, they don’t have the services of their QB1, Jaxson Dart, who has moved to the pros. However, Connelly’s issue is with the business Lane Kiffin’s program did in the transfer portal. “I don’t like this transfer haul at all; like, there’s the reason they’re projected, I think, ninth [they’re actually projected 11th] is because they were second last year.” 

Ole Miss was ranked 4th behind LSU, Texas Tech, and Miami in the transfer rankings for the 2025 season. The Rebels roped in some big names on offense in RB Kewan Lacy (Missouri) and WRs De’Zhaun Stribling, Caleb Odom (Alabama), and Deuce Alexander (Wake Forest). Even on the defensive side of things, LBs Jaden Yates (Marshall), Tahj Chambers (Missouri State), and Andrew Jones (Grambling State), along with edge Da’Shawn Womack (LSU), are significant additions.

However, as per Connelly, it’s not the additions; the guys they have lost are a bigger issue. “Maybe Austin Simmons is kind of ready to be a stud at quarterback, but I just look at the guys they lost. And the guys they brought in, and it feels like it’s a downgrade just about everywhere. So that one’s kind of tough for me. I guess they’re 11th, actually; never mind.”

The Rebels had eight players drafted in the 2025 NFL draft. The list includes their QB Jaxson Dart, DT Walter Nolen, WR Tre Harris, CB Trey Amos, DE Princely Umanmielen, DT JJ Pegues, LB Chris Paul Jr., and WR Jordan Watkins. When you lose such starting experience, there’s bound to be doubt about your output.

The second ‘fraudulent’ program as per Bill Connelly

While Ole Miss wasn’t originally in Bill Connelly’s top 10, the second program he names is a part of the list. It’s none other than Sherrone Moore’s Michigan, which is currently ranked 10th in the SP+ rankings.

“Michigan at 10 feels pretty ambitious, too, although we know that all they need is kind of a semi-competent quarterback, and they could be in pretty good shape. But yeah, those two are pretty tough otherwise,” Bill shed light on his second hope-buster team.

The Wolverines have added their $12 million crown jewel in Bryce Underwood, the nation’s No. 1 QB in the 2025 class. However, fresh out of high school, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Underwood’s production in the 2025 season. We rarely see a freshman QB taking the college football world by storm. That happens more with wide receivers (Jeremiah Smith, a case in point).

Moreover, the whole saga of their sign-stealing scandal is also not helping the program have the desired level of stability as they head into the 2025 season. Sherrone Moore is set to be suspended from the sidelines for two games, and considering the NCAA is still investigating the matter, there may be more severe sanctions.