Conceded, Oregon’s 2024 season came to a violently ugly end. That beautiful Pasadena sunset became the backdrop to a thorough beatdown at the hands of Ohio State. But if you extended Dan Lanning an offer of winning the Big 10 in year 1 post realignment, he’d have snatched your arm off. The conf. championship was a marked checkpoint, a legitimizer of everything they’re building in Eugene. The program’s trajectory is and has been pointing skyward since Coach Lanning came over. However, the one constant about College Football dynamics is that they’re never constant. Always evolving. Oregon has been riding a crest for a while, but there may be a drop on this proverbial rollercoaster imminent. 

Despite their remoteness and seclusion, Oregon has been a very attractive landing spot for recruits. Which, in turn, has fanned the flames of their success. There are 3 primary reasons the Oregon Ducks have been consistently churning out top-ranked classes on the recruiting trail. Dan Lanning’s track record of developing talent is one. Another, and some would say most prominent, is the Phil Knight and Nike backing. Being located in the backyard of the biggest sports company in the world sure has translated positively. But there’s another understated yet very important factor: Oregon’s ascension coinciding with a bit of a downturn for their blueblood neighbors on the Pacific Coast.

The USC Trojans have historically had a fence around the state of California, which is a hotbed of footballing talent. Their stronghold on in-state prospects was a key to their golden era under Pete Carroll. But since his departure, this fence has been breached. A ton of programs nationally have poached Cali for its talent, but Dan Lanning’s Oregon has made the most of USC’s weakening grip thanks to their proximity. But as aforementioned, CFB dynamics continue changing. USC is back in its element and currently boasts the No. 1 recruiting class in the country for 2026. A class that largely consists of in-state recruits. This inadvertently means Dan Lanning and Oregon have been affected in the inverse. But while the issue isn’t big enough to panic just yet, Rivals’ national recruiting analyst Sam Spiegelman has aired some caution for the Ducks.

Speaking over the 365 Sports YouTube channel, Spiegelman said, “This is going to sound cliche, but USC has started to recruit the best talent in California. They’ve flipped a couple of guys that were committed to Oregon and elsewhere in the B1G that were committed out of state.” It’s now USC and Lincoln Riley’s modus operandi to rebuild that fence around the borders. Which will keep out many, but hurt Dan Lanning’s outfit most. “Since Dan Lanning got to Oregon, they’ve been taking talent out of the West Coast and in the California and Los Angeles area, in particular. This year, Lincoln Riley and his staff were reinforced and driven to keep the best home,” proceeded Sam Spiegelman. 

The driving force behind this change has been new USC GM Chad Bowden, who came over from rivals Notre Dame. Bowden is renowned as a recruiting whiz and helped conjure that Irish team that just made the Natty. He has explicitly stated wanting to start off  by securing California, and it seems he’s being successful. Oregon’s allure remains just as shiny and hasn’t dulled by any means. They’ll continue to mobilize recruits till the time Lanning continues to succeed. But the school located in the biggest sports market and metropolis of LA, waking up from their slumber, doesn’t help matters. There’s been a conspicuous shift in the hivemind of the ‘26 class as the 4 and 5-stars give USC more consideration than previously. Not ideal for Coach Lanning and co. But there could be some good news on the horizon that can single-handedly turn things back in their favor.

Dan Lanning is approaching a pivotal recruitment that could domino into much more

The #1 overall recruit in the 2026 class, offensive tackle Jackson Cantwell, announces his collegiate commitment today i.e. May 13th. Dan Lanning and Oregon are one of the 3 schools in the reckoning. But USC isn’t one of them, nor is Cantwell a California native. Yet, this one decision could easily dictate how the remainder of Oregon’s recruiting cycle transpires.

Managing to land Jackson Cantwell will almost certainly have a domino effect over the rest of his contemporaries and peers in this class. Think about it this way: Any ties between USC and Oregon there on out probably go to the latter. But that, of course, depends on Missouri-hailing Cantwell actually coming all the way out to Eugene. Recruiting from the south has been something Dan Lanning has been successful at in the past.

The two schools Oregon will have to fend off are Miami and Georgia. Having already lost out on 5-star QB Jared Curtis to Georgia and his mentor Kirby Smart, Coach Lanning sure will hope to get 2nd time lucky. That said, Cantwell’s recent comments don’t bode too well. Alas, what Sam Spiegelman aired is a more macro issue for Oregon than one singular recruit. It’ll be fascinating to see whether Lincoln Riley and USC can continue what they’ve set in motion, or if Oregon will strategize and then force a return to being the top dogs on the West Coast.