Three years, three strikes, and Brian Kelly is yet to make it to the big dance. The LSU Tigers, once riding high on that Ed Orgeron natty magic, now find themselves staring down the barrel of another make-or-break year. After wrapping up 2024 with a 9-4 record, the shine on their high-priced head coach is fading fast. That season opener? Another L. A late-season collapse? Check. Fan base side-eyeing every press conference? Oh, absolutely. What happens when you pay nearly $100 million for the rings… and still get none? Let’s just say the folks in Baton Rouge are running out of patience—and somebody better start polishing up that resume.

Insider Glenn West from Geaux247 kept it blunt on Bud Elliott’s June 3 show: “You know, coming off a season where you saw some missed opportunities—I think that’s the biggest way to put it… a horrid second half, and then a losing streak there towards the end of the season, which Brian Kelly, you know, throughout his career, really hasn’t endured. And LSU hated to see that in terms of the fan base.” 2024 was supposed to be the bounce-back. But it turned into a repeat of all their worst habits.

Things started off looking alright—Brian Kelly’s squad was ranked No. 13, heading into the Las Vegas Kickoff Classic, facing No. 23 USC. They had the lead. And then? Boom. Two late touchdowns and a 27–20 gut-punch loss that triggered déjà vu. Their third straight season-opening loss. What followed wasn’t much prettier. By the time they hit College Station, LSU was ranked No. 8. But Texas A&M flipped the script with a 38–23 beatdown. Then came the Bama embarrassment (42–13) and a humbling in Gainesville (27–16). Three straight losses. Three straight gut-checks.

Glenn West didn’t sugarcoat when it came to Brian Kelly’s 2025 expectation: “But one of the big things I’m taking away here in year four—in terms of the way they have spent in the transfer portal, the way they have really kind of gone all in with getting Garrett Nussmeier to come back for one final season—this is a make-or-break year for Brian Kelly and LSU. I—I don’t know in terms of job security where it truly sits, but just in terms of what we have on the roster, what we like in terms of our great young depth and the veterans we brought in—this is a year where it’s kind of playoff or bust.”

The Tigers didn’t just lick their wounds this offseason.LSU has spent big this offseason. According to transfer portal rankings, they finished No. 2 nationally. They’ve stacked both sides of the ball like a Madden fantasy draft. Nic Anderson from OU (10 TDs as a freshman), Kentucky’s Barion Brown (SEC return TD record), and don’t even get started on 6’7” tight end Trey’Dez Green. Man looks like a basketball power forward but catches like a wideout. Red zone cheat code, easy.

On defense? They brought the cavalry. Tamarcus Cooley from NC State, Mansoor Delane from Virginia Tech, Ja’Keem Jackson, and AJ Haulcy. Then, three edge-rushers—Patrick Payton, Jack Pyburn, and Butler—with over 200 combined tackles in big-boy conferences. And that’s why folks are calling it what it is: playoff or bust.

Brian Kelly’s biggest kryptonite

The thing about Brian Kelly? He’s allergic to season openers. Like, full-blown hives and all. LSU’s got some real bad juju when it comes to kicking off the year, and he’s been feeding the curse. Since his Baton Rouge debut? 0-3 in openers. And if you stretch it out to the pre-Kelly era, they’ve dropped five of their last six. That’s not a trend—that’s a full-blown hex.

It started back in 2020 with a home loss to Mississippi State. 2021? They got cooked by UCLA, 38–27. Then came Brian Kelly’s era; 2022 was the blocked PAT (Point After Touchdown) against Florida State. 2023? Florida State again, only worse—45–24. And in 2024, USC played spoiler with two touchdowns in the final six minutes. 27-20. Every season opener has been a horror film for Brian Kelly and Co.

And now comes Clemson. The orange Tigers. The Death Valley showdown. But not the one in Louisiana. Glenn West said it best: “Clemson, man—they’re nasty up front. Like, that is a nasty defense. That’s gonna be a tough place to play on a Saturday night when you go to Clemson and play them in their home place.”

This isn’t your 2021 Clemson either. They’ve got dogs. The Clemson Tigers have got at least 10 solid draft prospect players on their roster. If LSU doesn’t show up sharp in Week 1, we might be watching another sequel in the Kelly-opening-L franchise. Fans are done with moral victories. They want receipts. They want a win.

Winning that opener isn’t just about making a statement. It’s about survival. Insider Bud Elliott broke it down plain: “If they can get to nine wins and have a strong résumé… You can play around with the numbers, but I think you have to make a playoff under Brian Kelly in Year Four. I mean, the floor is the playoff. Not in terms of what they can achieve, but what you should allow.”

That $60 million buyout? Still massive. But it’s not impossible. Especially if the vibes keep souring. LSU’s spending big, building big, and expecting big. If they’re not playing meaningful football in December, what are we even doing here?

There’s no more room for error. No more moral wins. No more cliches. Just banners or bust. Death Valley’s patience is thin. And if Year Four isn’t the year? Then that $95 million tab might be headed to the shredder, and Baton Rouge will be looking for someone who knows how to start a season with a bang, not a breakdown.