Dave Aranda enters 2026 with one mandate: win 8 games or face the exit. Aranda is entering the 2026 season with high hopes after a 5-7 record last year, but the chaos of that isn’t leaving him anytime soon. In this modern era, college football teams need immediate success and championship runs, and Aranda hasn’t been able to give any of them since 2021. Now, if the same streak continues, he might lose his job.

Podcaster Bill That CFB Guy said on X, “Baylor HC Dave Aranda is in a win-or-you’re-fired scenario. He will most likely need to win at least 8 games to keep his job.”

The numbers back the urgency. Things looked very different in 2021 when Baylor won the Big 12 championship under Aranda. At that time, many fans and analysts thought Baylor had found a coach who could lead the program for many years. People expected the team to keep improving and regularly compete for titles. However, that success did not continue. After winning the Big 12, Baylor recorded seasons of 6-7, 3-9, 8-5, and 5-7.

The team never came close to matching the success of the 2021 championship season. That collapse might have cost him his job—if not for chaos in Baylor’s front office. Former athletic director Mack Rhoades left the university after allegations surfaced, including a reported sideline exchange involving tight end Michael Trigg.

At the time, many people believed Aranda would also lose his job after Baylor’s disappointing results on the field. However, the AD search delay inadvertently saved Aranda’s job. Instead of making a coaching change, university president Linda Livingstone announced that Aranda would remain Baylor’s head coach.

Livingstone explained that Baylor kept Aranda for three main reasons. First, the school wanted stability instead of making another major change. Second, it wanted to keep most of the current players on the roster. Third, Baylor wanted to continue investing in the football program rather than starting over from scratch.

After Baylor hired new athletic director Doug McNamee, he publicly supported Aranda. But support from school leaders can only help so much if the team keeps losing games. Now, his $12 million buyout can also be the safety net. Aranda also made major moves to add value to the team. He added Florida’s former quarterback, DJ Lagway, to the team.

And also made coaching changes like hiring Joe Klanderman as the team’s new defensive coordinator to strengthen the coaching staff. But everything collapses if Aranda can’t translate his roster moves into wins on the field. Because Bill That CFB Guy is already looking for possible replacements for him.

Dave Aranda’s possible replacement

Last year, almost 15 head coaches lost their jobs because of poor seasons. Coaches who were with their teams for decades, like James Franklin, too, lost their jobs. The teams made it pretty clear that all they want is success. Teams like LSU invested $91 million to get a championship coach, Lane Kiffin; that shows how desperate teams are for success.

Now, the same can be the case with the Baylor Bears, as they are hoping for a better season, and if that’s not the case, things might turn ugly for Aranda. And to add more fuel to the fire, Bill, that CFB guy has already started mentioning possible replacements for him.

“So let’s say that Baylor does fire Aranda. Who are the replacement candidates?” Bill That CFB Guy said on X, “A few people I have talked to are thinking along the same lines I am. Bring former HC Art Briles back for a proper send-off. Let’s say 3-5 years. He brings his son, Kendal, with him. Kendal is currently the OC at South Carolina. Let the 2 of them be together for a few years. When Art hangs up his whistle, Kendal takes over as the new HC of Baylor.”

Bringing up Art Briles’s name is not a coincidence; he was Baylor’s head coach from 2008 to 2015. Before Art Briles arrived, Baylor struggled badly in the Big 12. In the 12 seasons before he became head coach, the team won only 11 conference games in total.

After Briles took over, things started to improve. In his first five years as head coach, Baylor won 17 Big 12 games. Bringing that kind of coach will surely turn things for Baylor. But let’s just wait and see how Dave Aranda handles the pressure this season.