A catastrophic collapse in March Madness has jeopardized Hubert Davis’ future at North Carolina and could force the university into a multi-million-dollar decision. Despite being favorites to beat the VCU Rams, they found themselves exiting the first round. That has led to speculation over the last 24 hours about coach Davis’ impending departure from the Tar Heels program.

“Hubert Davis’ future at North Carolina is in serious doubt as pressure mounts after historic collapse,” was shared by Matt Norlander of CBS Sports, who says it “would be a surprise to a lot of people in and around the program” if the Tar Heels retain the coach for a sixth season after today’s performance.

While upsets happen, UNC’s second-half collapse might be a precursor of things to come. It was the largest by any team in the first round of the history of March Madness. It was so shocking that even the commentator would later say, “Upset Madness,” to describe the Rams’ victory. But who would have guessed this was in the cards?

However, when Hubert announced himself in the grand scheme of things, this wasn’t the case. The first season saw him make a run to the national championship game. But the form has dipped since then. Missing the tournament in 2023, an early exit in 2024 as a No. 1 seed with a Sweet 16 loss, and now back-to-back one-and-done exits have all culminated in a situation where “firing” could be an option. But then there’s a catch here with Davis’ contract.

Firing Hubert Davis Would Trigger A Hefty $5.3M Buyout

North Carolina now faces a difficult financial and strategic decision. While looking for replacements would be their option, the way Hubert Davis’ contract goes, it doesn’t end well for the Tar Heels. His contract is valid until June 30, 2030. The deal states that UNC would owe Davis $5.312 million if he were fired on April 1, according to USA Today, which has obtained the contract between the two.

Hubert’s contract includes a base salary of $1.25 million annually, along with $1.8 million in supplemental compensation for the 2026 contract year. That supplemental figure increases by $100,000 each year for the remainder of the deal. He also receives $50,000 annually in expenses, as well as additional outside compensation, including payments from Nike and Learfield Sports.

His total compensation for the 2026 contract year is listed at $3.85 million, with increases scheduled over the life of the contract as the supplemental pay escalates. So that is a steep financial hurdle that North Carolina will have to accommodate if it chooses to cut ties with Hubert. But that doesn’t mean negotiations wouldn’t help in finding better solutions.

North Carolina athletic director Bubba Cunningham has since commented on the situation. “Every year at the end of the season, it’s important to evaluate all facets of the program and look for ways to improve. The Chancellor, [executive associate athletic director] Steve [Newmark] and I are doing that together now and will continue to have discussions over the coming days,” said Cunningham about the next steps he will take.

That particular line of action may lead to a possible reshuffling in the ranks, believes ESPN’s Pete Thamel, and many staff members could get axed in the process. However, whether Davis’ name will be on that list is still not certain. In all honesty, five years isn’t much time to gauge a coach’s worth, and Hubert’s five years with UNC might have been mediocre, but they weren’t a disaster by any means.

Nate Oats, Grant McCasland, or Mark Byington could be the favorite to land the UNC job next. This could also trigger Jay Wright to come out of retirement. One thing is for sure, though, if the program seeks a new coach, they may need to look outside the Dean Smith coaching tree this time.