“Every game we play is an NCAA Tournament game now. I want to write our own story. I want us to write it. We have a chance. It is all in our hands,” said a determined John Calipari after his Arkansas Razorbacks lost to the best team in the country, Auburn last month. Naturally, his words were met with a lot of criticism. But since then, the Razorbacks’ fortunes have turned around. Those words seem to have sparked something in the entire team.

The Razorbacks have won 3 of their last 4 games and are now considered a bubble team in ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology. Victories over Missouri and Texas have strengthened John Calipari’s case for the big dance. They now aim to finish their regular season strong by hosting the Mississippi State Bulldogs at the iconic Bud Walton Arena on March 8th.

John Calipari continues to be without his best player

The Bulldogs will be missing their long-term absentee, Kanye Clary, who has been ruled out for the season with a lower leg injury. But there is a big miss for Arkansas. They will be without their best player, Adou Thiero, for the 4th game running.

Adou Thiero, who was leading the scoring and rebounding for the Razorbacks this season, hyperextended his knee during Arkansas’ win over Missouri on Feb. 22 and has been sidelined since. When asked for an update, Calipari said, “I haven’t talked to anybody today, so I don’t know.” Initially, Calipari had told the press that Thiero suffered a back injury, but the club’s website later clarified it as a knee hyperextension. There are rumors circulating that Thiero might be done for the season, but no official announcement has been made yet.

If that were to be true, the forward would be joining yet another one of Razorbacks’ top scorer– Boogie Fland — who has been ruled out for the rest of the season due to hand injury.

Projected starting lineups

Here are the projected starting lineups for both teams

Mississippi State Bulldogs

• 2 Riley Kugel
• 4 Cameron Matthews
• 12 Josh Hubbard
• 22 RJ Melendez
• 23 Michael Nwoko

Arkansas Razorbacks

• 1 Johnell Davis
• 4 Trevon Brazile
• 11 Karter Knox
• 21 D.J. Wagner
• 44 Zvonimir Ivišić

Key stats and players to watch out for

One of the biggest issues for MSU this season has been their defense against 3-pointers. The Bulldogs give up 9.4 3-pointers per game, which ranks last in the SEC and ties them for 350th nationally. They’re also 0-8 against SEC teams in the top seven for 3-pointers per game and 8-1 against teams in the bottom nine of the conference.

But Arkansas might actually be their best matchup. Why? Because Calipari’s team is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the SEC. The Razorbacks average just 7.1 3-pointers per game, ranking 13th in the conference. To make things even better for MSU, Arkansas has only hit more than 10 3-pointers in a single game this season.

However, Arkansas, averaging 76 points per game this season, can take some confidence from Mississippi State’s recent defensive struggles. The Bulldogs have allowed 111 and 93 points in their last two away games, and that is something coach Calipari can look to work on.

When it comes to players to watch out for, Mississippi sophomore guard Josh Hubbard stands out. He’s been averaging 18.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game this season. Another player worth keeping an eye on would be Arkansas junior forward Trevon Brazile. Brazile made history in their last win against Vanderbilt, becoming the first Razorback to record 16+ points, 14+ rebounds, 2+ assists, 2+ blocks, and 2+ steals in an SEC game since Nick Davis.

Can John Calipari and co overcome another big test?

It seemed the season was over for the Razorbacks when Thiero got injured and they suffered a blowout loss against South Carolina of all teams. But Trevon Brazile has been a much-needed breath of fresh air for the Hogs. His energy and athleticism have certainly made a difference since their best player went down. Brazile’s presence gives them a real chance to compete against the 25th-ranked team in the country.

Historically speaking, Mississippi State have an abysmal 9-23 record away from home against the Razorbacks. When recent form is taken into consideration, the Bulldogs have just two wins in their last 5 games. Naturally, ESPN gives the Razorbacks a 57.4% chance of winning the game despite the fact that John Calipari’s side have a 5-9 record against the quad 1 teams this season.

There’s still plenty of basketball left for Arkansas, with this game against Mississippi State crucial for their postseason hopes. With the SEC Tournament on the horizon, the Razorbacks also have an outside chance of making it into the First Four of the NCAA Tournament if Joe Lunardi’s predictions are taken into consideration. John Calipari and his team still have a lot to prove, and this game could be a turning point. Stay tuned for more updates.