Jonathan Kuminga hasn’t signed an extension weeks into July—and it’s no accident. His camp is reportedly pushing for a four-year deal worth $25–30 million annually, signaling confidence in his rising value. The Warriors, however, are facing serious cap constraints. With nearly $171 million already committed to their 2025–26 payroll, they’re hovering just below the luxury tax apron, limiting their ability to add veteran targets like Al Horford or re-sign De’Anthony Melton. Any high-end deal for Kuminga would tighten that margin even further.

Across the league, the restricted free agent market has hit a wall. Most teams are navigating tight financials, and the usual RFA bidding war hasn’t materialized. Several teams—the Kings, Suns, Bulls, Heat, and Hornets—have expressed interest, but none hold the cap space or trade assets to make a serious play. The Suns reportedly lack the draft capital to satisfy Golden State’s asking price. The Kings were turned away on an initial offer. And while the Bulls have explored sign‑and‑trade frameworks involving Ayo Dosunmu, they’re tied up with internal RFA matters—namely, Josh Giddey’s looming extension.

Still, the Warriors aren’t rushing. According to league sources, they’re prepared to let Kuminga’s situation stretch into training camp or early August, possibly favoring a short-term deal with built-in trade flexibility. There’s also buzz that Kuminga could take the one-year qualifying offer (~$7.9 million) to secure full Bird rights and a no-trade clause this season—giving him unrestricted free agency in 2026. That move, however, would shift leverage firmly in his favor. On a recent episode of the NBA Front Office Show podcast, analysts Trevor Lane and Keith Smith broke down what Golden State may be weighing—and how this contract standoff could unfold.

Lane laid out the broader problem first: “Restricted free agents—watching the paint dry. They are still stuck right now because there’s no money. There’s nowhere for these guys to go.” He specifically named Jonathan Kuminga among the group of young talents in limbo, saying, “They don’t want to take what’s available from their teams right now.”

This standoff could eventually push someone like Kuminga to consider a rare but growing threat: accepting the qualifying offer. “I keep waiting, Keith. At some point, one of these guys is just going to say, ‘I’m taking the qualifying offer,’” Lane predicted. “That is the one threat that they’ve got… I think at least one guy’s going to wind up taking that qualifying offer.” Smith elaborated on how complicated that would make things for the team:

 “If a player signs their qualifying offer, they get a one-year no-trade clause because if they are traded, they lose their Bird rights. So… they could block a trade.” That leverage could stall front-office movement and create a tense holding pattern that doesn’t benefit either side.

While Lane emphasized the risk, Smith pointed to a potential workaround: “I think there’s still a chance Kuminga ends up a sign-and-trade. There’s been enough buzz with enough teams interested that maybe there ends up being a sign-and-trade.”

One of those rumors continues to make waves—Kuminga for Keegan Murray. “I know there was a lot of buzz around Kuminga for Keegan Murray,” Smith said. “Yeah, I’m just not going to fully rule that out… I would not do that if I was the Kings. That would be bad in my opinion.”

There’s also been loose chatter around the Chicago Bulls showing interest, though clarity is lacking. “There were some rumblings about the Chicago Bulls potentially being interested in him—maybe something with Ayo Dosunmu,” Lane noted. “I can never make heads or tails of what the Bulls are doing, though.” Smith half-joked about their strategy during mock trade sessions: “They executed the vision of ‘we’re going to be the Chicago Bulls’ almost perfectly.”

In the end, Smith summed up the frustrating nature of this market: “This is why restricted free agency sucks so bad for players. Because if you land in a year like this, you are just stuck unless you’re like a no-brainer re-sign… We know for a fact all four have offers—they just don’t like what the offers are, because otherwise they’d already be signed.” Smith’s blunt commentary on restricted free agency set the tone for how limited player movement has become this summer—even for promising talents like Jonathan Kuminga, whose situation now sits at the intersection of potential and timing.

Kuminga’s Market and the Warriors’ Fork in the Road

At one point, Sacramento was floated as a potential trade partner with Keegan Murray. But Smith dismissed it: “That would be bad in my opinion,” citing the Kings’ failure to maximize Murray’s offensive potential.

As for Phoenix, Duane Rankin noted the Suns have some interest but lack the assets to make a serious move. Chicago, meanwhile, remains noncommittal. Lane joked their fake trade sessions in Vegas deserved a “Most Realistic Award,” reflecting the Bulls’ perpetual indecision.

Kuminga’s 2023–24 stats — 15.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists — underscore his growth, but his 30.5% from three and 66.8% from the line remain concerns.He’s 22, a former No. 7 pick, and played key minutes during the 2022 title run — but he may not cleanly fit alongside veterans like Butler or Horford.

A trade could open minutes for Gui Santos. The 6’7″ forward might find a spot in Kerr’s rotation if Kuminga departs. But with Moody, Draymond, and a potential newcomer all competing for time, Santos likely remains on the fringe unless the roster shifts.

The Warriors are at a pivot point. They can lean into development — or package it away. Kuminga isn’t asking to be the face. He just wants room to grow — and that may now come elsewhere.