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The 2026 NBA Playoffs are here, which means betting opportunities for those reading this article. We’re not talking single-game props that are largely prone to variance.
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We are talking about using hard research to pinpoint value in a seven-game series.
Here is a look at all the odds for each first-round team with an officially set matchup:
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You probably could have guessed this from the title of the article, but the one I am most intrigued by is the Los Angeles Lakers beating the Houston Rockets in the first round at +520 (per FanDuel).
Normally, the fourth seed would not have a 16.1% chance of beating a fifth seed. However, this is no ordinary series.
The Lakers will likely be without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves — two of their leading scorers and best players — for most of the series. On paper, this puts Los Angeles at a severe strategic advantage. But if you look a little closer, they have a better chance than you think.
The Houston Rockets are not the juggernaut you think they are
For the regular season, the Rockets boasted the 8th-best offense, the 6th-best defense, and the 6th-best net rating in the association. But those numbers are pretty misleading.
The theory behind this Rockets team focuses on its ability to beat the c–p out of you on the glass.
However, a key ingredient in that formula — Steven Adams — has not played for them since January 18. Before he went down, Houston ranked 4th in net rating (per NBA.com). Since then, it is just 11th (one spot ahead of the Lakers in that stretch).
Without Adams, the Rockets go from an all-time offensive rebounding team (41.0%) to a great one (36.5%). This makes their first shot offense that much more important. In the playoffs, this typically means having a healthy half-court offense.
Without Fred VanVleet, the Rockets’ half-court attack is about as healthy as James Gandolfini.
They rely on Kevin Durant to create shots for them, and as they don’t have too many shooters around him (28th in 3-point attempts per game), defenses can load up on The Slim Reaper and take his scythe. This will make defense (a weak point for this Lakers’ group — 20th in defensive rating) so much easier.
They could squeak out just enough on offense
Even if playing defense is easier, the Lakers still need to figure out how to score some points. Fortunately, LeBron James may have just enough in the tank to put on his Superman cape for one last tour of duty.
In his final four games of the season (without Doncic and Reaves), James averaged 25.5 points, 11 assists, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.5 steals per game on 62.3% true shooting.
The Lakers had an excellent net rating of plus-25.4 in his minutes and won three of those four games (albeit against shadier opposition). For the season, the Lakers have a plus-12 net rating when James has been on the floor without Dončić or Reaves (527 minutes, per PBP Stats).
Life hasn’t been kind to Deandre Ayton since being drafted in 2018. But you can’t forget that he was an 18 PPG scorer on a title-contending Phoenix Suns team less than a half-decade ago. His affinity for post touches and unwillingness to be a traditional rim-running big man can be detrimental on higher-level teams. However, in this instance, he can scale up to function as a floor-raiser in this series.
Luke Kennard is one of the best shooters on the planet (career 44.2% 3-point shooter), and great shooters can swing a postseason series when they catch fire.
Jake LaRavia has gotten lost in the shadow of the Big Three; still, he is a gifted driver (77th percentile among wings in rim accuracy, per Cleaning the Glass), adept at playing off two feet, who can shoulder some secondary creation burden for Los Angeles.
Marcus Smart isn’t much of a scorer, but his two-way contributions and unwavering intensity will ensure that Los Angeles doesn’t go down without a fight.
It also feels like people are underrating the possibility that Doncic will return in this series. He went to Spain to receive advanced regenerative treatments — including potentially stem cell therapy or platelet-rich plasma (PRP) — to heal his Grade 2 left hamstring strain.
I know this is a bunch of mumbo-jumbo to most of us, but it could bring him back sooner than we think. If the Lakers can have even 75% of Doncic, it shifts the odds immensely.
Luka Doncic
Traveling to Europe to treat his grade 2 hamstring strain
Germany (& Switzerland) traditionally lead the world in cutting edge medical treatments, especially Stem cells.
He’s likely getting a combination of MSC’s, placental tissue, exosomes, as well as other… https://t.co/2ZE8p9Z6SA
— Jesse Morse, M.D. (@DrJesseMorse) April 6, 2026
That is the point of all this. When you play these high-odds futures bets, you aren’t saying that they will definitely come to fruition. Instead, you think the bet has a higher chance of maturing than the oddsmakers seem to believe.
With no Doncic or Reaves, there is no world where the Lakers should be favorites.
But with the struggles around the Rockets’ offense and James’ history of Herculean playoff efforts, Vegas isn’t giving Los Angeles enough of a chance.
Written by
Edited by
Abhimanyu Gupta