Despite holding a tie-breaker advantage over the Denver Nuggets, things are not straightforward for the Los Angeles Lakers. Heading into the final game of the regular season with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves sidelined, the Purple and Gold are surely entering the first round of the playoffs undermanned. Both stars have uncertain recovery timetables, leaving 41-year-old LeBron James with a massive burden.

The Lakers would want to avoid losing in the first round for three seasons straight, and for head coach JJ Redick, it would be the second year in a row. Last season, they finished as the #3 seed, and if they want that finish this season, a couple of probabilities would need to swing their way. With the Wolves locked as the #6 seed and the Rockets as the #5 seed, here’s how the Lakers could march forward in the playoffs.

LeBron James and Co. to aim for the third seed

After losing Luka Doncic at halftime against OKC, the Lakers lost that game and all the momentum, then suffered two more losses. So, now, to be a three seed, they first have to beat the tanking Utah Jazz. Then hope and pray that the shorthanded Denver loses to the Spurs. With this permutation, they would jump to #3. With this, they would draw the Minnesota Timberwolves, as they did last year in round one, and then likely face the Spurs in round two.

For now, it looks like the Lakers will play most of their main team against the Jazz. The latest injury report lists only LeBron James and Jaxson Hayes as questionable, with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves remaining out. Hayes has missed the last three games with a foot ailment. James can feature for limited minutes as Utah has put eight players out for this matchup. If things go their way, Anthony Edwards’ Timberwolves will then stand in their way.

However, the Lakers have had the upper hand in the regular season, sweeping the series with wins of 120-106, 116-115, and 128-110. In fact, Ant-Man dropped 31 points in the first game, missed the second, and only scored 14 from 2-for-15 shooting in the final matchup. They lack scoring depth beyond Edwards, and Julius Randle’s playoff consistency remains a question mark.

If they progress to the first round, they might face the #2 Spurs, who will first face the #7 seed with a healthy Victor Wembanyama. The Lakers hope to have Doncic and Reaves back for round two. That’s because the Purple and Gold won the first game of their series in November, but have lost the next three.

In the third game of the series, LeBron James, Austin Reaves, and Rui Hachimura didn’t feature. And for the final game, Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Austin Reaves, DeAndre Ayton, and Marcus Smart were not available. So, on paper, we are yet to see how a fully available Lakers squad performs against the Spurs. No doubt, the first game will be an uphill battle. But if they win, LA has a better shot against the Spurs than they would against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

If the Purple and Gold finish #4, they have a tough task at hand

The Lakers are currently one game behind the Nuggets. If both teams win, then the standings stay the same, and JJ Redick’s team locks the #4 seed. If the Lakers lose, the Denver result won’t matter, and LA will face the Rockets in round one and a likely matchup with the Thunder in round two.

The Rockets’ eight-game win streak was snapped by Minnesota on Friday. Despite the addition of Kevin Durant, the team has looked on the brink of meltdown multiple times. The Lakers have won their series 2-1, 124-116, and 100-92 in March; the Rockets won 119-96 on Christmas. So, LeBron James and Co. have the edge in recent meetings. Houston has also shown poor late-game execution and high turnovers. In fact, they have even struggled in clutch situations.

That’s why many fans are leaning towards the Lakers losing to the Jazz and facing the Rockets, with better odds of progressing. But the thing to note is that awaiting them in the Conference semifinals would be the defending champions. There is no matchup where OKC feels like an underdog. They are the No. 1 offense and defense, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (MVP candidate), Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and a deep bench. Against the Lakers, they have been truly dominant, winning the series 4-0.

In that series, OKC won by a combined 117 points in four matchups. So, the Lakers would need heroic performances from their top 3 scorers and a couple of health miracles to steal a series. Thunder’s regular-season dominance and playoff experience make them a nightmare second-round opponent.

Apart from going on any run, the reality is the missing pieces. Luka Doncic, the NBA’s leading scorer at 33.5 points per ​game, and Austin ⁠Reaves, with 23.3 points, have not played since April 2 due to a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and a Grade 2 oblique strain, respectively. With both stars out for the regular season and LeBron at 41, fans are pessimistic about advancing far either way. That’s why many prefer the Wolves/Spurs bracket for a more winnable second round if they survive round one.