Joey Logano is back in Chase contention after his second Cup Series win at Richmond Raceway. Six races ago, he was outside the Chase bubble, but now he sits ninth in the points standings. It’s a massive turnaround, and it doesn’t come as a surprise to those who have watched the No. 22 team execute during the playoff era. Despite the hype surrounding Logano and the threat of “even-year Logano” getting hot at the right time, he’s not the favorite to win the title by the end of the year.
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Jordan Bianchi explained why Logano will always be playing catch-up to Denny Hamlin and the No. 11 team. “You no longer control your own destiny because even if you go win a race and win stages, Denny still finishes second and third. Like, you’re not gonna pick up enough points.”
Unlike the elimination-style playoffs, the Chase is going to present a different challenge. The major differentiator will be who has the points advantage going into the 10-race dash. The No. 1 seed will have a 25-point buffer, and that number increases with each position down the order. The No. 6 seed will have a 50-point advantage, and Logano isn’t even inside the top six after the Richmond race.
Jeff Gluck shared a similar sentiment while speaking on The Teardown podcast. “The way Chases have been run before, typically you have guys that have a bunch of top 5, couple wins. You can’t really outrun them 50 points… It seems difficult and you’re really going to have to outrun Denny Hamlin, who every week it seems like the 11 team is somehow there, like, and they just don’t have a lot of weak spots.”
Gluck has a point. Hamlin has been remarkably consistent this season, even when he’s not winning races. He has five top-five finishes in the last six races, and that consistency is reflected in the standings as well. Hamlin is likely to be the No. 1 seed heading into the Chase, as he has a 115-point advantage over Ryan Blaney.
Then there are contenders like Chase Briscoe, Ty Gibbs, and Christopher Bell. All of them have consistently run inside the top five and are likely to finish ahead of Logano, setting up a tough field for the Chase. There is a possibility that Hamlin could hit a rough patch or collect a few DNF finishes, but it will be difficult for the likes of Logano to close that gap.
Darlington, Bristol, Las Vegas, Kansas, and Charlotte are tracks where Hamlin is likely to contend for wins or put together solid points days. Without the elimination-style format, Logano and the No. 22 team will need something close to a miracle to topple the consistent Toyota teams. But right now, both Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi believe the likelihood of that happening in the Chase is slim.