64 wins, 22 NASCAR Cup Series seasons so far, and yet somehow, none of Denny Hamlin’s dominant victories could materialize into a championship. After having one hand on the trophy almost six times across different playoffs/elimination formats over the last two decades, Hamlin is reliving the horrors of his past failures all over again in 2026. But one veteran broadcaster believes Hamlin is up against his own people, and it’s not entirely his fault.

On the latest episode of PRN’s “Fast Talk” podcast, Kyle Petty, Doug Rice, and Brad Gillie discussed Denny Hamlin’s Martinsville run, his 2026 Chase, and how the No. 11 team’s poor strategy and execution have been the crucial pain point of his championship contention story.

While Petty was “blown away” at Denny Hamlin failing to do something different to revive his race at Martinsville on Sunday, Rice made a crucial callback to the 2025 championship fight, highlighting how the No. 11 team is making the same errors a year later. And while the duo shared their perspective, Brad Gillie’s take on Hamlin’s championship choke sheds light on the broader picture of why the racer has failed to win his maiden title over the years.

“I think this is what really hurts from Phoenix (last year),” said Gillie. “You know, Larson was pitted kind of far back on pit road. Denny Hamlin was right up at the front. They had the opportunity to realize that Larson was making a two-tire stop and making an audible, but they made a four-tire stop. Now, a four-tire stop won Corey Heim the Truck championship two nights before, but this is the Cup Series and things were different, and that was the difference made.”

While Hamlin, a three-time Daytona 500 winner, has delivered record-breaking performances over the years, his Joe Gibbs Racing crew has faltered on multiple occasions, costing him crucial points and ultimately the title win.

Drawing Parallels Between Denny Hamlin’s 2025 and 2026 Downfalls

While the trio discussed his heartbreaking 2025 Phoenix outing, the callback came after his 2026 Martinsville race mirrored the former’s strategic errors. Hamlin, who started the Xfinity 500 race from pole, dropped down the order after crew chief Chris Gayle took the call not to pit Hamlin for the entirety of Stage 1 distance, while the rest of the field pitted around the halfway mark. The gamble did not pay off as cars on fresher rubber drove past the No. 11 driver with ease as he tumbled down the order into 17th place by the end of the stage.

While the Stage 1 gamble proved costly, Hamlin did a sensational job recovering to the front of the field before contact between Joey Logano and Christopher Bell caught and spun him on lap 215, sliding him back down the order to fight for positions. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver came home to a sixth-place finish, failing to capitalize on his historic pole position.

Gillie and Co.’s 2025 Phoenix reference comes from Hamlin absolutely dominating the race by leading for 208 out of 319 laps before a late-race twist completely shattered his championship hopes.

Hamlin started the race from pole and had the title in his grasp with just three laps to go. Hamlin was just 40 seconds away from realizing his ultimate dream when a late caution was triggered by a crash involving fellow title contender William Byron on lap 310. The caution rolled the race into an overtime finish, with drivers now relying on pit crews to execute the best possible strategy.

While Denny Hamlin’s crew opted to change all four tires, title rival Kyle Larson took the gamble of opting for just two new tires. Although the race concluded with Ryan Blaney winning, since Larson finished third and was the highest among the Championship 4 title rivals, he was crowned the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Champion.

On the Fast Talk episode, Gillie elaborated, “That was one of multiple times where I feel like, and I don’t ever want to say Denny Hamlin has choked on the championship. I feel like Denny Hamlin has been choked with a call like that. With a overtly large-sized piece of tape on his bumper, with a bad Phoenix run when he was going up against Johnson. You can look at many times and realize that the 11 team has taken themselves out of the championship, and I don’t really always put that on Denny’s shoulders.”

Hamlin’s 2026 Chase season and the missed opportunities

A dominant regular season saw the No. 11 driver return to the Chase as the No.1 seed to win the title. And while the Joe Gibbs Racing driver tried to build on his regular-season momentum, Kyle Larson charged toward Chase dominance, shocking the title contenders with his consistent performance in the format, and leading Hamlin to nearly hit the “panic button.”

Hamlin and his Joe Gibbs Racing crew, however, were challenged by multiple racing incidents, poor strategy calls and gambles, and disastrous overall executions. And while the racer finally began factoring in luck and destiny after 20 years of his Cup Series career, he believed the racing gods were picking on him after all his efforts failed to manifest his dream into reality.

Hamlin dropped to fourth in the standings before rising to second and dropping to third after Martinsville. He currently sits 70 points behind the championship leader, Kyle Larson, with just one final race left to decide the title.

And while racing gods, luck, destiny, and more odds may be backing up the veteran driver against the wall, hope is not lost, as Hamlin mathematically remains in the picture to win the title at Homestead-Miami.