So far in 2025, things haven’t gone according to plan for Shane van Gisbergen. After making a major impression in his debut race two years ago in Chicago, he hasn’t exactly been lighting up the track since. Currently, SVG is competing in his first full-time NASCAR Cup Series season. However, his best finish so far—a 6th place—came at the Circuit of the Americas, a road course. On ovals, his highest finish has been 14th at Charlotte.

Despite his struggles, some insiders still believe he has an outside shot at making the Playoffs. In a recent conversation, NASCAR pundit Dave Moody expressed confidence that van Gisbergen could still pull off a surprise. What works in his favor is the upcoming stretch of road course races before the Playoffs begin.

If he manages to snag a win, it would mean one less Playoff spot up for grabs. A year ago, that wouldn’t have raised many alarms since he was only racing part-time. But in 2025, it’s a different story—full-time drivers are now hoping he doesn’t take a victory. His best chances? The inaugural Mexico City race, along with Chicago, Sonoma, and Watkins Glen—giving him four solid shots to punch his ticket to the Playoffs.

Shane van Gisbergen can make a few drivers sweat

Moody told NASCAR Live, “Anybody down lower in the points standings that’s able to rip off a win. Just shifts that whole cut line an entire position further towards the top. If you do the math right now, we’ve got 8-9 drivers that are less than one race off the top line. Either slightly above or slightly below. We’re going to have plenty of time to talk about that as we get down into the second half of this regular season.” Yeah, that’s true, but what next?

He further stated, “If it doesn’t change, and I don’t know how it will, it’s only going to get worse or better from a fan’s perspective. With more drivers locked in for fewer spots. We’re going to get down to 3-4 races left in this regular season, and it’s going to get to throat-cutting time, because there’s going to be 6-8 guys fighting for 2-3 spots. I can’t wait, it’s going to be a lot of fun.” He is correct.

Currently, nine drivers have booked their Playoff berths, leaving 7 in contention. If the Kiwi driver manages to win, that would mean that six spots are up for grabs, and the competition will be fiercer. According to Moody, there are at least eight to nine drivers who are vying for the rapidly diminishing Playoff spots.

Aside from SVG, there are other road course ringers, like AJ Allmendinger, Chris Buescher, and many more. In other words, the #88 driver will have to fight for a win. There’s no guarantee. Though Trackhouse Racing will have faith in his abilities behind the wheel and hope that he will be the next winner after Ross Chastain.

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Was that Chicago win a case of beginner’s luck?

Of course, given that he has not won a race since his debut in Chicago, questions are starting to arise. Did Shane van Gisbergen just get incredibly lucky to win on that day? Let’s consider that this was the Chicago Street Course’s inaugural race. So it was the first time that anybody was even racing on the track.

Additionally, it was also raining, which probably made things a lot more treacherous. Maybe if the race kicked off in bone-dry conditions, it could have been a different story? Or if the regular Cup Series drivers had been a little more familiar with the track, it could have turned the tide in their favour.

Alas, we may never know the answer to those questions, but the fact remains that SVG won that race and created history. Nothing is going to take away the fact that the 36-year-old is the first winner at the race track. All that is left to do is to prove to any critics that that win was no flash in the pan.