Denny Hamlin entered the NASCAR Cup Series Chase as the No. 1 seed, carrying a 25-point advantage after winning four regular-season races. But after a series of costly mistakes, that cushion has all but disappeared. Now, he finds himself staring at a 73-point deficit to Kyle Larson with just two races remaining. And Hamlin knows that, at this point, his own performance alone might not be enough to turn things around.

Speaking to reporters at Martinsville on Saturday, Hamlin admitted that keeping his title hopes alive may require a major setback for Larson.

“Something catastrophic needs to happen to Larson,” Hamlin said at his media availability at Martinsville, according to Peter Stratta. “If you do have a fighting chance, Homestead is a place where Larson is good on the wall; hopefully he cuts a tire.”

Hamlin Admits His Own Mistakes as Larson Pulls Away

But that being said, Hamlin isn’t putting the entire situation down to simply bad luck. Asked whether he had lost the championship himself or Larson had won it, he said that both were somewhat true.

“I think it’s a little bit of both,” he said.

It is an assessment that recognizes Larson’s performance without overlooking Hamlin’s shortcomings. Larson has taken advantage of opportunities, collected stage points, and delivered when the pressure has increased. His Talladega victory was especially significant, considering he had never won on a drafting track in 58 previous attempts.

Hamlin’s predicament stems largely from how dramatically Talladega changed the championship standings. Larson entered the Alabama race just five points ahead of Christopher Bell. His 71-point haul, however, transformed that narrow advantage into a 73-point lead over Hamlin, who finished eighth.

The contrast is particularly painful for Hamlin. A slow pit stop and contact at Darlington, a spin at Las Vegas, and a flat tire at Phoenix have all contributed to a postseason in which he has struggled to put together complete race weekends.

Larson, conversely, has won at Gateway, Kansas, and Talladega during the Chase. His 2.83 average finish across the first six races of the postseason was the second-best such stretch in Cup Series history. Hamlin now needs to recover 74 points over two races, something he has accomplished only five times since 2017 under the modern points format.

NASCAR’s Championship Projections Make Things Worse for Hamlin

That gap was also reflected in NASCAR’s championship projections, compiled by Racing Insights. The numbers offered a particularly sobering assessment of Hamlin’s remaining chances while illustrating just how close Larson is to securing another championship.

Matt Weaver brought up the projections during Hamlin’s media availability, prompting a response that carried a hint of sarcasm.

“I always believe what NASCAR says,” said Hamlin with a smirk, according to Matt Weaver.

The figures explain the reaction. Racing Insights gave Larson a 92.3 percent chance of winning the championship, compared with just 4.1 percent for Hamlin. Larson also had a 36.8 percent chance of clinching the title at Martinsville.

His immediate target is 59 points, regardless of how his competitors perform. With 76 points available across a race weekend, that would put him beyond reach with Homestead remaining.

Hamlin’s situation is considerably more complicated. He needs to leave Martinsville within 22 points of Larson to control his own championship destiny at Homestead. Racing Insights puts the probability of that happening at just 3.2%.

Even winning both remaining races would give Hamlin only a 60% championship probability. Two victories would represent the perfect response from Hamlin’s side, yet even that would not guarantee the title. Larson’s existing advantage means he can afford a considerable setback and still remain in control.

Martinsville Could Give Hamlin One Last Chance

Martinsville offers Hamlin a familiar opportunity. He led 292 laps in the spring race before Chase Elliott beat him, demonstrating that the No. 11 Toyota has the pace to dominate at the Virginia short track. Larson finished ninth but has also recorded eight consecutive top-10 finishes there.

For Hamlin, another strong Martinsville performance is essential. Whether it is enough depends increasingly on Larson.

Hamlin has not been eliminated, but his championship pursuit now requires near-perfect execution and help from an opponent who has rarely needed it. Martinsville must provide the opening. Otherwise, Homestead could become another season-ending reminder of how close he came to the Cup Series title.