Kyle Larson’s Kansas masterclass has made Ryan Blaney’s championship climb a whole lot steeper. The No. 12 team is now in a tough spot, sitting 91 points behind the championship leader. And with just six races to go, Blaney knows that the margin for error is next to none and is desperate to close the gap.
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“We’re going to have to try to win two of the last six, you know, to have a shot,” Blaney said in an interaction with Mike Bagley and Pete Pistone on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
Now, there is no denying that Blaney’s fifth place was valuable. However, this was simply Larson’s day. He entered the Hollywood Casino 400 as the Chase leader and then posted a 76-point day. Having led 235 of 267 laps, he won Stage 1 and Stage 2, and ultimately claimed the race.
Larson’s result also stretched his advantage over Denny Hamlin by another 26 points, leaving Blaney with even more ground to make up. With every point carrying forward through the Chase, Blaney knows solid finishes alone may not be enough if Larson keeps producing days like this.
“I think for the field, the worst-case scenario was Larson dominating like he did at Kansas, right, was already the points leader and just went and had a max points day, literally 76 points,” Blaney continued in the interaction. “We had a good day, but, you know, it’s hard to compete with stuff like that when he puts a day like that together.”
A win from here on would give Blaney a much larger points haul than a normal top-five finish. This would also prevent Larson from collecting another maximum-points result. Blaney also knows the rest of his Chase has to be built around avoiding another major points loss.
“Big, big points days and finish well in the others, and you never know,” he said.
There is some statistical evidence behind Blaney’s optimism, considering NASCAR’s pre-Chase analysis gave Blaney an edge at several of the remaining Chase venues, such as Phoenix and Martinsville, while also rating him highest at Talladega among the superspeedway drivers. All significant opportunities for the Penske driver.
If we take another approach and go by Blaney’s own results this season, he won at Phoenix earlier this year after starting fifth, and he finished P6 at Martinsville in the spring.
The upcoming schedule is not perfect for Blaney. The Chase is heavily weighted toward intermediate tracks, including Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Homestead. Team Penske is strong on flat ovals and short tracks, and that is why the streak of intermediate ovals leads to more challenge for the No. 12 team.
“There’s still six more of these things. You know, there’s plenty of time,” Blaney said. “I’m very hopeful going to Vegas based off our Kansas speed that we can, you know, maybe take another step and get better and try to compete for the W out there.”
The weather has not exactly made things easier. Qualifying was canceled at Kansas, leaving NASCAR’s performance metric to set the starting lineup and sending Blaney off 25th. Blaney has also been vocal about the metric, which uses 70% of the previous race’s finish and 30% of the owner-points position.
“Either just do one thing or the other,” he said.
It was another deep starting spot for the No. 12 team, but he still managed to fight through the field for fifth and 37 points. This recovery becomes crucial, as Blaney’s strategy now requires more than simply surviving races. He needs to convert his advantages into victories, particularly at places like Phoenix, Martinsville, and Talladega.
The No. 12 driver is aware of things that can happen when things fall in place, but at the wrong time. Chase Briscoe briefly passed Larson for the lead at Kansas and appeared capable of delivering the type of result Blaney needed at this point, only for a ‘loose’ No. 19 Toyota and late wall contact to drop him to fourth. Briscoe left Kansas 123 points behind Larson and seems to have thrown in the towel regarding his title hopes.
Blaney, however, remains hopeful. With six races still left, he appears to have cracked the formula he believes can keep him alive: two wins, major points hauls elsewhere, and no major setbacks.