The time is not far when we could see Denny Hamlin finally winning a Cup Series championship. But whether he wins it or not, we will see the Xfinity Series champion crowned first on Saturday. And all eyes are rooting for the 19-year-old rookie, Dale Jr.’s prodigy, Connor Zilisch, the only driver with double-digit wins this season. Well, almost all.

The teen’s made some crazy records, whether it’s his streaks of consecutive top 5s or wins. But he’s not alone. There’s Justin Allgaier, the representative of experience, Jesse Love, the Daytona winner, and Carson Kvapil, the surprise upset. And though Denny Hamlin recognizes Zilisch’s potential, he’s not his favorite pick for the title.

Denny Hamlin’s Xfinity champion

On his Actions Detrimental, co-hosts Denny Hamlin and Jared Allen had a chat about the Xfinity finalists showdown at Phoenix. When Allen named them, Hamlin first ranked them practically, saying, “Based off of speed all year, it’s the #88, #7, #2, #1. I don’t know what Carson Kvapil’s stats have been this year. It was interesting, he started the year off, and I’m thinking, ‘He’s going to win a lot of races,’ and just plateaued, really plateaued. I just thought that #1 team was very underwhelming for the bulk of the season. Seven Top 5s in the Xfinity Series is not much. Not much at all.”

Kvapil, who had a great start to the year with a 4 at Daytona, fell into the midpack hustle there onwards. He rose back to form with good back-to-back finishes at Darlington and Bristol, but most of his season, as Hamlin says, was “plateaued”. He’s the only winless driver in that finale bunch, and Hamlin’s definitely not sure of him.

Next was Jesse Love’s turn, and eventually the others, as Hamlin said, “I feel like Jesse Love has been faster than Carson. Jesse was pretty good at Phoenix last year. You got to think the #7 car last year, the championship race, Justin Allgaier was very dominant. Had it going on. You got to think he’s going to be very tough again. You also got the #88, who is part of that team and has gotten better on all types of tracks throughout the season. I think it’s still going to be a close one.”

Last year, Allgaier had a dream run at Phoenix that saw him finishing runner up but winning the title. As for Love, his stats at Phoenix haven’t been bad at all, as he’s always finished top 10 over there. And then of course, the No. 88 can not be ignored anywhere. So Hamlin’s answers show how he’s carefully evaluating them all for what their performance has been and not blindly practicing favoritism.

Finally, Allen asked, “Who’s your pick then? You got to pick one of them.” And Hamlin had chosen his pick:

“I’ll give the nod to Justin. Just base off of, his car is going to be just as prepared as the #88. He’s not going to get beat off of equipment. I believe that this is where experience will benefit him well. That might be one of his best race tracks. Remember last year, all the mistakes he had, and still come back. They were lightning fast, so Justin’s my pick.”

So Allgaier it is. Hamlin chooses experience over youth.  And his reasoning makes sense when you look at Allgaier’s record. Phoenix is one of Allgaier’s strongest tracks, having won there twice with plenty of top-five finishes, including last year’s runner-up. That experience can surely challenge Zilisch’s raw speed and his rising hot form.

Even Dale Jr shares the stance with Hamlin, as he too snubs his own prodigy, “Justin Allgaier had a pretty quick car. Feel pretty good about where they are momentum-wise, speed-wise going into these next couple of races, and feel like if Justin can get to Phoenix, he’s got a great shot at winning another championship.”

That’s all for the Xfinity. What about the Cup?

Cup favorites

The Cup finale at Phoenix will see two powerhouses, Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports, battle each other with equal drivers on their sides. Though Phoenix has been frustrating for JGR, they’ve consistently managed to reach there. And on the other hand, Hendrick Motorsports arrives with its one-sided domination on short tracks. Fan debates are hot on social media, and it’s the anti-hero that stands out.

Denny Hamlin leads the poll with 37.9%. He’s followed by Larson at 26.8%, Briscoe at 20.3%, and Byron at 15%.

Though Hamlin and Larson lead this, no one can be ignored. William Byron’s short-track and restart strengths can upset anyone, especially as he arrives to Phoenix from his Martinsville boost. As for Chase Briscoe, his recent outings at Phoenix may not have been great, but he’s won there and knows how to stay steady.

Larson won the title in 2021, so he knows exactly what it takes to perform under pressure at Phoenix. His balance of aggression and control on such tracks keeps him a constant threat.

Ultimately, Phoenix will certainly not be just another race. Hamlin will chase redemption, Larson will try to reclaim that past glory, Byron will use his hot form, and Briscoe could simply shock the field. Whatever it is, the desert will crown not just the one who’s the fastest, but the one who manages to keep his calm along with it.