Under the golden Arizona sunset, Denny Hamlin looked every bit the man in control. The No. 11 Toyota glided through the early stages of the Championship race at Phoenix Raceway with precision. The JGR veteran was fast on entry, steady on exits, and calm on the radio. Fans and analysts alike could feel it: this might finally be his moment. Six wins in the season had built momentum, confidence, and the quiet belief that fate might at last lean his way.

Yet, as the laps wound down, the race that seemed destined to be Hamlin’s slipped through his grasp in stunning fashion. What appeared to be dominance turned into disappointment. And according to his ex-crew chief, Chris Gabehart, it all came down to something as unpredictable as a coin flip.

Denny Hamlin’s Phoenix heartbreak

Chris Gabehart, Joe Gibbs Racing’s competition director and former crew chief for Denny Hamlin, described the 2025 Phoenix championship race’s final laps as “a coin flip.” “You had cars that had stayed out. With the tire wear, the way it was, the championship four cars, is something that I never ever would have imagined,” he said.

Hamlin had led dominantly but faced a challenging caution on lap 309, forcing tough pit decisions. On lap 312, Kyle Larson took two tires and restarted fifth, while Hamlin and Chase Briscoe took four tires, dropping Hamlin to 11th and Briscoe to 15th. Meanwhile, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Preece, and Alex Bowman stayed out on the track, shaking the running order.

Eventually, this incident cost Hamlin the championship as Hamlin couldn’t reach Larson on the final restart, and the race ended with Larson in third and Hamlin in sixth. ‘Yung Money’ clinched the title being the highest among the final four. Gabehart stressed the sport’s unpredictable nature: “That’s what makes our sport unique. It’s not one team versus another team, you’re covering 38 other cars out there. You can’t cover all the bases.”

In other sports, whether NFL, NBA, or anything, you mostly have to worry about beating just one opponent, whether a player or a team. But in NASCAR, you have 38 others. This competition and uncertainty make NASCAR uniquely thrilling, and things like tire strategies play a huge role in the outcome.

Regarding tire performance, Gabehart absolved Goodyear of blame. “You can’t blame Goodyear. We are beating the crap out of these tires trying to go fast.” The drivers had the tires run at low air pressure with aggressive setups to maximize speed. However, this pushed the tires to their limits, risking structural integrity as pressure built on the track. As a result, most of the frontrunners, including Hamlin, had to pit as the race went into overtime.

Hamlin, too, refused to blame Goodyear for his loss. “Well, I think they (Goodyear) did a great job all season long, and it’s not their fault that we’re running the tires flat. So, I really applaud them and the tires that they’ve continued to bring to the racetrack and keep pushing the limits on softer to try to put it back in the driver’s hands. It’s the teams,” he said post-race.

Ultimately, Gabehart said with a smile, “We’re just pushing Goodyear to the edge, and no matter what they build, we’re going to exploit it.” This constant push for speed and performance adds complexity to strategy, with split-second decisions often determining championships – an aspect that continues to define NASCAR’s intense competition.

Meanwhile, though Larson is happy winning his second title, like everyone, he couldn’t help but empathize with his fellow rival.

Larson shares a heartfelt message for Hamlin

Kyle Larson shared a heartfelt message for his friend and rival, Denny Hamlin, after the dramatic conclusion of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix Raceway. Larson expressed genuine sympathy for Hamlin’s heartbreaking loss despite his dominating performance.

“I definitely have a lot of empathy for him…It’s great to celebrate and all that, but it does feel a little awkward because he has put so much time and energy, has been so close to winning so many championships. This is as close as he’s ever been. Sure he’s a competitor, but he is a friend. I was going to be happy for him to win. That’s kind of what I was thinking about. Like, man, I can’t wait to go tell him, Good job. Then the caution came out and the script flipped right there,” the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series champion said.

Similarly, William Byron publicly apologized to Denny Hamlin for the late-race caution he caused that dramatically altered the outcome of the race. “It just doesn’t seem right. He had beat us, and we’re running second, four laps to go, and you go into the wall and cause a caution. It sucks. I don’t want to be that guy,” he said.

Hamlin, while visibly shattered after the result, responded with understanding, acknowledging, “It happens.” Though the caution dashed Hamlin’s title hopes, Byron’s candid apology signified respect among competitors despite the unforgiving nature of NASCAR’s racing. Gabehart’s “coin flip” metaphor wasn’t just about strategy; it reflected the cruel balance between preparation and luck that defines this sport.

Hamlin, now 44, is still chasing the one accolade missing from his otherwise stellar career: a championship ring. But with consistency, speed, and a relentless drive that refuses to fade, one has to wonder: how many more coin flips will it take before Denny Hamlin finally lands on the side of history that’s eluded him for nearly two decades?