The Kyle Tucker sweepstakes look like they’ve boiled down to three teams, and each one brings something different to the table. The Blue Jays are in the mix with a long-term offer. The Mets have reportedly gone big with a four-year deal worth around $50 million per year. And then there are the Dodgers, who are said to have put forward a short-term offer for an undisclosed amount.

Of course, when the Dodgers are involved, it’s easy to assume they’re the favorite. And it wouldn’t shock anyone if Tucker ultimately landed in L.A. on a short-term deal. But former Yankee Todd Frazier isn’t buying that outcome. In what might be an unpopular take, Frazier has urged Tucker to pass on the Dodgers, and honestly, his reasoning kind of checks out.

“The unknown part really bothered me,” Frazier said via Foul Territory.

So why does Frazier think Kyle Tucker should stay away from the Dodgers?

Well, it really comes down to uncertainty. The Mets, at least, have put their cards on the table with a reported $50 million AAV offer. The Blue Jays are said to be ready to go all-in with a 10-year deal. With the Dodgers, though, everything is still pretty murky. Yes, it’s been reported that L.A. is offering a short-term deal, but the length and total value haven’t been made public, and that’s the red flag for Frazier.

Frazier has also been clear that if he were in Tucker’s shoes, he’d prioritize long-term security over a short, high-AAV contract loaded with opt-outs. And his opinion carries some weight. Over the course of his career, Frazier played for seven different teams, and his longest stop was a four-year run with the Reds. He knows firsthand how exhausting it can be to keep hitting free agency every few years.

That’s why the Blue Jays have long been viewed as the favorite, but only if Tucker is truly set on landing a long-term deal.

According to Jon Heyman, people close to Tucker believe Toronto offers the right market size and an appealing spring training setup for the soon-to-be 29-year-old outfielder. A contract that stretches a decade or more brings a level of security that’s tough to turn down, even with all the perks that come with a shorter deal.

And even for someone as consistently elite as Tucker, nothing is guaranteed. He’s dealt with his share of injuries in recent seasons, which only strengthens the case for locking in long-term stability now. So the big question remains: Can the Blue Jays close the deal, even with the Dodgers looming as a very real threat?

A dark horse might also be racing for Kyle Tucker

Even with the Dodgers, Mets, and Blue Jays all pushing hard for Kyle Tucker, there’s another team that could quietly jump into the mix: the Giants.

For the unversed, San Francisco has some pretty obvious holes, especially at second base. And when you look at the outfield, it’s tough to point to a single clear-cut above-average bat. Sure, they have Jung-Hoo Lee, but so far, he’s been more solid than special. Either way, the bigger picture is hard to ignore: this lineup badly needs more offense.

You could argue the Giants got ahead of the curve with their blockbuster move for Rafael Devers last summer, and that was definitely a statement. But even with Devers, Matt Chapman, and Willy Adames in the fold, the offense still feels short of where it needs to be. Adding Tucker would instantly fix a lot of those issues.

And when you look at how aggressive the Giants have been this offseason, it wouldn’t be shocking if they had another surprise up their sleeve. A stealthy push for Tucker? Don’t rule it out.