“It’s weird. We want to win this game even though our ticket’s punched to the quarterfinals,” Team USA manager Mark DeRosa shared with MLB Network on Tuesday morning, after the win against Mexico but before losing against Italy.

The surprise loss to Italy in the WBC didn’t just make things tougher for Aaron Judge and co. but also put the manager in an awkward spot, especially after his claim of securing a place in the quarterfinals.

“Yeah, I misspoke. I was on Hot Stove with a couple of buddies today and completely misread the calculations,” DeRosa said.

“We knew that Mexico was going to play Italy and then run in all the numbers if we lost tonight, with the runs allowed and runs scored and outs. So I just misspoke.”

The defeat left the USA’s qualification situation uncertain, and DeRosa ended up facing criticism for the earlier comment. However, he’s now acknowledged that the team hadn’t officially clinched a quarterfinal spot after all!

With the Team USA manager’s ‘miscalculation,’ it raises the question: did that assumption somehow affect the team’s mindset going into the game against Italy? Or if the clubhouse really believed the quarterfinal spot was already locked up, it could’ve taken a little of the urgency out of the moment.

With second-inning homers from Kyle Teel and Sam Antonacci off of Team USA starter Nolan McLean, Italy led 3-0. That lead extended in the fourth inning when Jac Caglianone hit a two-run homer. With 5-0 on the scoreboard in favor of the Azzurri, Caglianone celebrated it with a shot of espresso in the dugout.

Then, the sixth inning saw Brad Keller’s costly throwing error. Sam Antonacci hit a ground ball back to Keller. Keller fielded the ball and attempted to throw to second base to start an inning-ending double play, but he threw the ball into center field. The entire looked like a mess, and Italy led 6-0.

The sloppiness followed in the same inning with more mistakes from Keller – a sacrifice fly and a wild pitch – and it was 8-0 already.

And all this while, Italian starter Michael Lorenzen kept the U.S. bats at bay, tossing 4 2/3 scoreless innings, while allowing two hits and walking one. Things started to get a little brighter when Gunnar Hendersen hit a home run towards the center field, followed by Pete Crow-Armstrong’s three-run home run in the bottom of the seventh inning.

In the eighth, Roman Anthony drove in one run on a single, and PCA added another homer in the ninth. With the score standing at 8-6, the Stars and Stripes brought Captain America to the plate to tie the runs.

Aaron Judge’s swing and miss off of closer Greg Weissert’s pitch made the dream team’s hopes rely on Italy, which pulled the biggest win in the country’s baseball history.

“It’s tough. It’s super tough,” DeRosa admitted when asked about the team no longer controlling its own path to the next round.

DeRosa led Team USA to a runner-up finish in the 2023 tournament. But he has mostly been known in recent years as a co-host on MLB Central since retiring from a playing career that lasted more than a decade.

Now, Team USA’s fate depends heavily on the outcome of Wednesday’s Italy-Mexico matchup.

If Mexico wins by fewer than five runs, Team USA’s run in the WBC would come to an end right there. If Italy beats Mexico, then things get even murkier. The Americans then need help from the tournament’s tiebreaker rules to move on.

Team USA’s hopes are still alive

Even after the loss to Italy, Team USA still isn’t out of the picture just yet.

On Wednesday, if Italy beats Mexico, both Italy and the United States would move on, with Italy finishing on top of Pool B in the WBC. But if Mexico wins, things get a lot more complicated.

That result would create a three-way tie between Italy, Mexico, and the United States.

All three teams are sitting at 3-1 in pool play, and each is going 1-1 against the other two.

The tiebreaker rules would decide which two teams advance and which one goes home. The key metric would be runs allowed per defensive out.

The USA has allowed 11 runs in 54 outs (.2037 runs per out). Mexico has allowed five runs in 24 outs (.2083), and Italy has allowed six runs while recording 27 outs (.2222). The lowest of these numbers would help with the tiebreaker.

If there is significant scoring involved in the Mexico-Italy game, the USA should be safe on the tiebreaker regardless of the outcome.

If Italy beats Mexico, the USA advances. Italy will have finished pool play 4-0, USA 3-1, and Mexico 2-2. But if it goes otherwise, Team USA needs to be one of the top two in terms of the tiebreaking scores.

If Mexico scores or allows six runs, the win/loss outcome won’t matter, and Team USA will be in the QFs, provided the game doesn’t advance in extra innings.