Paul Skenes’ 2026 collapse has sparked a debate over its cause. The star didn’t expect the 2026 season to turn out the way it has. Since the start of this season, his drop in velocity has been a major talking point in Pittsburgh, and, per the reigning Cy Young Award winner, the blame partially goes to his WBC pitching in early 2026. Former pro Adam Ottavino doesn’t agree, though.

Reportedly, Skenes averaged 98.8 mph on his fastball as a rookie and 98.1 in his second year. By comparison, his average this season is 96.8 mph.

“There are a lot of other factors, so I don’t want to put everything on that,” the Pittsburgh Pirates ace said about his appearance in the WBC. “But I feel like that was kind of the root of it a little bit.”

A 3.91 ERA and 192 strikeouts season is still far from being worse and, per Ottavino, it’s more about execution than being blamed on Skenes’ WBC stint.

“When I saw the quotes, I was like, ‘Rest in peace, WBC.’ People are gonna be panicking now. Like, ‘Don’t play in this thing.’ It bugs me a little bit…

“I played in three of these things. Obviously I’m not a starting pitcher, not on the level of Paul Skenes, but I feel like if you prepare accordingly, it shouldn’t be the root cause of a down year,” Ottavino shared via Foul Territory.

Veteran relief pitcher Adam Ottavino has uniquely represented two different countries across three separate World Baseball Classic tournaments. Just this year, he returned to pitch for Team Italy (2009: Italy & 2023: USA), delivering a scoreless two-thirds of an inning before officially retiring from the game and shifting to a field-level analyst and broadcaster.

While he was a minor leaguer in 2009, pitching for Triple-A Memphis Redbirds (St. Louis Cardinals organization), Ottavino went 7-12, striking out 119 batters. His ERA stood at 4.75 that year. In 2023, he was pitching for the New York Mets.

At 37, his win-loss record was 1-7 and a 3.21 ERA, striking out 62 batters. But his 16-year MLB career tells us that he knows what he’s talking about.

“And when I watch Paul pitch this year, yes, the velocity’s down, but it’s plenty enough to get guys out. For me, it was more that his delivery was out of sync. He hasn’t executed the same, and then on top of that, he’s run into some bad luck.”

For most starters, a 3.91 ERA is respectable. For Skenes, it’s a collapse.

He broke onto the MLB scene in 2024 as the NL Rookie of the Year and finished third in the 2024 Cy Young voting. He finished that season with a 1.96 ERA and 170 SOs over 133 innings. 2025 was even better.

He finished last season with a 1.97 ERA and 216 SOs, winning the Cy Young Award. But in his third year with the Pirates, that didn’t happen.

“It definitely affected the year,” Skenes added. “Unfortunately, I don’t think I’m the only one… Yeah, I don’t know. (The WBC) definitely didn’t make things easier.”

Paul Skenes pitched twice in the 2026 WBC for Team USA, striking out seven over four scoreless innings against Mexico in the group stage, and 4.1 innings against the Dominican Republic in the semi-final. Skenes has so far pitched 168 innings.

In comparison, Cam Schlittler pitched 190.2 innings in 2026. Still, Schlittler’s ERA stands at 1.94. Per Ottavino, Skenes’ WBC workload (4 IP + 4.1 IP) shouldn’t derail a pitcher for an entire season because in the WBC, starters pitch for 3 to 5 innings on average. Plus, through his first nine starts this season, his ERA was almost identical to the previous two seasons – 1.98.

The blame should be on Skenes’ lack of execution and luck. Since mid-May, he has recorded a 4.73 ERA, along with a 1.13 WHIP through 31 games.

Ottavino points to a precedent:

Marcus Stroman’s 2017 season proved how both the WBC and MLB season can be dominated in the same year.

He pitched for Team USA to its first WBC title, winning Tournament MVP with a 2.35 ERA, then posted a 13-9 record and 3.09 ERA over 201 innings for the Toronto Blue Jays while winning an AL Gold Glove. It was again a 3.00+ ERA that was celebrated.

Per Ottavino, Skenes’ 3.00+ ERA may be his career-worst, but nothing to be concerned about. Rather, he should focus on execution.

Skenes failed to execute his pitches this season.

Pitches located in the strike zone fell to 46% (down from 51% in prior years), leading to more nibbling and a higher walk rate (6.3%). Luck also didn’t favor Skenes this year.

Paul Skenes’ very first outing in 2026 was against the New York Mets, and it was marred by fielding miscues.

He threw 37 pitches, allowed four hits, two walks, and hit a batter, yielding five earned runs. It was the shortest outing and a career-high in runs allowed. Center fielder Oneil Cruz misjudged a drive by Brett Baty that sailed over his head for a bases-clearing triple, and then lost a follow-up fly ball in the sun that dropped for an RBI double.

Ottavino sees nothing concerning with Paul Skenes. Still, it will be interesting to see how he makes a comeback. That’s what elite pitchers do.

Paul Skenes got another season to prove himself

“I’m very curious to watch him and what he does this offseason to rectify it, because that’s the mark of a truly great pitcher. Somebody we’ll remember forever is not at their peak, but how they were able to get back to that peak time and time again despite the adversity,” Ottavino added.

A slump is part of the game, but a turnaround is what makes a player elite.

Skenes had his slump this season, but he got the next season to prove himself.

He is still 24 and has enough time to start from scratch. Definitely more than Skenes’ first two seasons, his great comeback will be remembered if done. That takes us back to Roy Halladay’s comeback.

After a disastrous 2000 season with a 10.64 ERA, the worst in MLB history for a pitcher with at least 50 innings, the Toronto Blue Jays optioned him down to Class-A Dunedin to rebuild his career. In the spring of 2001, the then-pitching instructor Mel Queen identified that Halladay was trying to overpower hitters with straight, over-the-top fastballs that were too easy to track.

He worked with the pitcher to change his arm angle; Halladay found the trick to tuck his front shoulder to hide the ball from the hitter’s view until the last possible fraction of a second, and finally, his hittable fastball turned into a darting sinker-and-cutter combination.

That same year, the Jays recalled him to the big leagues, and he closed his comeback season with a 3.16 ERA.

From 2001 until his final healthy season in 2011, “Doc” Halladay went on to become the most dominant workhorse in baseball, winning two Cy Young Awards (2003, 2010), pitching a perfect game, throwing a postseason no-hitter, and earning a first-ballot induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2019.

Coming back to Skenes, 2027 has no WBC, so he can identify the gaps through the spring and prepare himself for a historic comeback.

Remember Daniel Bard.

Once an elite setup man for the Boston Red Sox, Bard completely lost his ability to throw strikes due to a severe mental performance block. He had a 9.00 ERA in 2013.

He took a break and came back with the Colorado Rockies in 2022, securing 34 saves and a brilliant 1.79 ERA.

For Skenes, the situation is not that difficult. A breakout in 2027 will probably be in sight.