We are deep into the mega-deal era of baseball, where contracts now look like they belong in tech mergers, not in sports. And yes, one recent blockbuster deal is reshaping the market and setting a new tone for what elite talent can command. Guess who: Shohei Ohtani. His $700 million deal shattered the ceiling that had been maintained until now. Juan Soto followed it up with an even better deal. And this year, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has already made a mark by securing a $500 million+ deal. Now, who is left? The Cubs’ slugger, Kyle Tucker.

Yes, the Chicago Cubs slugger is expected to be the next big thing after Guerrero and might make a statement if he hits free agency. Why not, when Guerrero Jr. can make $500 million? Tucker has 130 career home runs compared to Guerrero Jr.’s 160. Moreover, in terms of their batting average, Tucker (.275) is comparable to Guerrero Jr. (.288). Tucker is far ahead of Guerrero Jr. in terms of stolen bases (98-20). So, do you think the Cubs will pay this astronomical amount for Tucker?

“If the Cubs don’t extend him, that may go down as an all-time terrible trade,” an NL executive said. The Cubs acquired Tucker in a trade deal with the Houston Astros in December, and after the 2025 season, Tucker will hit free agency. Will the Cubs take this risk of letting their top hitter go? Hopefully not, but they will need to break the bank to retain him. Particularly since it wouldn’t be easy for them to close a deal before free agency, and if a bidding war began, retaining the consistent offensive value in their lineup could be even more tricky.

“He’s likely to be the best player on the market by a decent margin; I can’t imagine him giving up the opportunity for a bidding war to potentially take place for his services,” one National League executive added. Spot on! After Guerrero Jr. closed his $500 million deal, Tucker will likely sign for less. Moreover, it is just a one-year relationship between the Cubs and Tucker, which surely is not as influential as Guerrero Jr.’s relationship with the Blue Jays.

When the Cubs acquired Tucker, they simply expected an All-Star. However, what they got is a franchise cornerstone who has completely elevated the lineup and energized the Wrigley field. Guerrero Jr.’s deal also proved what it takes to make a hard bargain. Will Tucker will get a hard bargain with the Cubs, or is he ready to hit free agency?

Potential landing spots awaiting Kyle Tucker 

There’s a good chance that Tucker may opt for free agency over staying with the Cubs, given how close he is to it. After all, Soto and Ohtani have well demonstrated what free agency can do to a talented slugger. Even when injured, Tucker produces like an MVP. He doesn’t need a full season to make a massive impact, and when healthy, he’s one of the top five-tool players in the league. How? 23 homers, 49 RBIs, and a .993 OPS in a season seem impressive, right? What if these numbers are amassed from just 78 games? Yes! Despite suffering a right shin fracture that sidelined him for nearly three months, Tucker came back with a vengeance.

This season, Tucker has hit 5 HRs and 19 RBIs so far. Hence, Tucker’s 2025 season is off to a stellar start, with both traditional and advanced metrics reflecting his significant impact on the field. Moreover, his contributions are pivotal to the Cubs’ offensive success, and his contract situation will be a key storyline to monitor as the season progresses. 

Reportedly, Tucker is expected to have notable suitors behind him. Will the Cubs pull up a miracle among all these odds? For starters, the Yankees are one of the serious contenders for Tucker, and that tug-of-war with the Cubs has only added fuel to the fire. The Yankees were reportedly willing to go deep into their farm system or consider high-end MLB-ready talent to acquire Tucker.

So, the Cubs are racing against time to extend Tucker, and while the logic is there, the timing and circumstances complicate everything. Tucker is months away from hitting the open market—at this point, his camp knows a massive deal is waiting. He has leverage and may want to hear all offers, especially with Scott Boras-type agents representing many star players these days. Do you think this will work for Tucker post-2025?