It’s hard to ignore the numbers, especially when they look as shiny as the New York Mets‘ pitching stats this season. Their rotation has delivered more than just solid performances—it’s been downright impressive. But before you start penciling them in for postseason glory, not everyone is ready to crown them. An ESPN insider, known for his blunt assessments, has already made some predictions that might leave fans scratching their heads. Could it be that all that shines is just a glittering mirage?

After looking at the pitching the Mets have done this season, everybody is pretty sure that they are bound to make the postseason. While he thinks they will have a good season, MLB insider Jeff Passan does not consider them a top team to go deep in the postseason.

During the latest episode of Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney, they talked about the Mets’ pitching and how impressive they have been. It was during this episode that Passan shared his thoughts on the Mets’ season. He stated, “The Mets are going to go only as far, I think, in the end, as guys like Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are going to take them.”

The pitching at the Mets camp has been on another level right now. They rank first in the fewest runs earned with 2.41 and rank seventh in strikeouts with 125. They have also conceded the fewest home runs, with only 7. But their star pitchers Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are going to play a major part in the Mets’ season.

Their other starting pitchers are doing a good job, with Tylor Megill and Clay Holmes putting on an absolute show. But as the season progresses, Passan thinks that the bullpen will fall a little, and that might have a big impact on the season.

So yes, the Mets’ arms are dealing fire right now—but as Passan subtly reminds us, April strikeouts don’t guarantee October champagne. If Montas and Manaea can’t hold the line, this dream run could turn into a familiar Mets nightmare. Because let’s face it—no one hands out trophies for early-season ERA. The real season starts when the heat turns up… and the Mets historically start sweating.

Montas and Manaea are down—Now what for the Mets?

The Mets came into 2025 with what looked like a rotation built to compete—not just survive. But before the first pitch of the season, the injury bug decided to throw its own curveball. Suddenly, Kodai Senga, Holmes, and David Peterson find themselves holding down the fort while the reinforcements are already limping. Depth may be the buzzword, but in Queens, it’s starting to sound more like a prayer.

It is going to be a huge problem for the Mets if Montas and Manaea are not coming back early. According to Carlos Mendoza, Manaea is not going to be on the mound for some time. Mendoza said, “Sean has been shut down from throwing… it’ll be a few weeks.” Manaea was expected to be one of the leaders for the Mets’ pitching lineup, but this injury has thinned out the rotation.

As if this were not enough, Montas also got injured. When asked about this, Mendoza said, “Montas was shut down from throwing for six to eight weeks.” The one thing is Montas got injured during the first bullpen session during spring. Who knows? His comeback might be closer than expected. With these two out the pitching depth is already being tested and the Mets might want to look at some contingency plans in case things don’t work out.

And that’s the rub—spring training was supposed to sharpen the rotation, not shrink it. Now, with two key arms in street clothes, the Mets are left juggling optimism and anxiety. The talent is still there, but if the backups become the backbone for too long, things could get wobbly fast. Hope may be eternal in baseball, but so are injury reports in Queens.