The New York Mets find themselves at the center of yet another blockbuster trade as the 2025 season winds down. Last time it was Juan Soto, and this time it’s Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. The 28-year-old lefty, fresh off back-to-back dominant seasons and two AL Cy Young awards, is entering his walk year in 2026. With a 2.30 ERA over the last two seasons and more than 190 innings pitched each year, he is one of the most coveted arms in baseball.

Detroit apparently offered a $150-170 million extension, but Skubal is a Scott Boras client. And they are looking for big money, and the number floating around is $400 million. This leaves the two sides too wide apart, and that brings New York into the picture. The Mets’ rotation heading into the off-season is far from settled. Injuries and inconsistencies have plagued Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, and David Peterson. Now Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong are intriguing prospects, but neither has proven themselves over a full season. Hence, the Mets are looking to be more aggressive this winter.

But of course, getting Skubal to come join won’t be easy on the pocket. The Tigers will likely demand several top pitching prospects along with a premium position player. Targets could be Tong, Sproat, or even Jett Williams. It is, for sure, a huge price, but the Mets might want to make a leap.

And this is where Joel Sherman’s perspective hits home. On his podcast, Sherman laid out the stakes—trading for Skubal is not something one can do lightly. He recalled a lesson from Billy Beane about the “pain equity” in trades—the deal has to hurt for both sides. Sherman said, “Billy Bean taught me a lesson. He said, “You just offered me a pile of—” so I added another player, and he just said, “Now you’ve added more.” And he said, “If I trade that player, it’s going to be incredibly painful for me. If it isn’t equally painful for you, then why even call me?” Like, this must be incredibly painful. I’m trading Tar Skubal. I’m trading the guy I would try to save humanity with… So, like, if I’m doing that, the pain has to be equal on the other side.” 

For the Mets, that could mean protecting Nolan McLean while debating whether to include someone like Carson Benj. Sherman highlighted that most prospects don’t really reach their potential, so teams must weigh the immediate value of a Cy Young-caliber pitcher against the potential future stars they would be giving up. Any team chasing Skubal must feel the real pain in the exchange. Otherwise, the Tigers simply wouldn’t trade the player they honed to be a superstar. For the Mets, this is a tough reality, given that landing Skubal could transform their rotation overnight. Sherman’s advice rings loud—only make the move if the sacrifice is worth it. Moreover, the Mets do have a certain Brewer, they can keep as a second option, a backup! 

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The Yankees might just steal Tarik Skubal from the Mets! 

As it appears, the two New York teams seem to be head-to-head in the fight for yet another player. Because, just like last time, they might be interested in getting Tarik Skubal. Detroit’s situation is complicated, and in no way do they inspire confidence that they would meet Skubal’s number. History shows that, given pitchers like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, all left after getting better deals. And now, not just the Mets but also the Yankees seem to be fishing for the lefty.

Brian Cashman, after a sad season, is looking for a rotation-altering piece, and Skubal checks all the boxes. He is young, he is dominant, and he is experienced in postseason pressure. He is a perfect add-on for a team that is looking to end its World Series drought. The Yankees also have the assets to get this deal done. Infielder George Lombard Jr., along with pitchers Luis Gil and Cam Schlittler.

Then there is the matter of Biras, who is known to push every client to maximize the free-agency value. Boras makes Skubal signing a huge long-term deal unlikely. Look at the Juan Soto deal; it is a reminder, given Boras’ clients rarely sign extensions that limit their market. But the Yankees’ circumstances are different this time. They are in a win-now mode and could take in Skubal as a short-term game changer.

Adding Skubal would give New York one of the league’s most dominant arms for at least one season, and that could be enough for them—at least for now.