The Baltimore Orioles were hoping to enter the 2025 season with a blast. But they are now facing a harsh reality as they deal with depth issues in their rotation and alarming injury concerns surrounding Grayson Rodriguez causing worry among fans and analysts alike. One top MLB insider has now made a grim prediction: the Orioles could finish fourth or even last in the AL East, a stunning fall for a team that was supposed to be a rising force.

Let’s be real—the Orioles’ starting pitching was never deep to begin with. They landed Corbin Burnes in a blockbuster trade, but beyond him? Question marks are everywhere. Kyle Bradish is dealing with an elbow injury. The team has lost John Means. Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin are solid but not frontline arms. And now, Rodriguez’s situation looks more worrisome than originally thought.

Rodriguez’s velocity dipped to 89 mph in his last outing—an alarming drop for a guy who usually sits in the mid-to-upper 90s. While the Orioles are publicly optimistic, elbow inflammation is nothing to take lightly. If Rodriguez isn’t alright, Baltimore’s rotation might be the worst in the division.

That’s not just speculation—it’s the view of well-connected MLB insider Paul Hembekides from Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney. Speaking on the Orioles’ outlook, the analyst stated bluntly, “If you rank the five rotations in the American League East, Baltimore clearly is at number five.”

That’s a major red flag. The Yankees boast a strong rotation with Max Fried joining the roster, though Gerrit Cole’s injury causes a few depth concerns. The Blue Jays still have Kevin Gausman leading their staff. The Rays are, well, the Rays—they always find pitching. Even Boston, often criticized for lacking an ace, looks deeper than Baltimore at this point.

The Orioles do have an excellent bullpen. However, they may not have enough quality innings from their starters to get to it with a lead. And here’s the kicker: they decided to move the fences back last season to help pitchers. Now, they’ve brought them in, a decision that might backfire given their weakened rotation.

Baltimore still boasts a dangerous offense led by Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, but they can’t win slugfests every night. If Rodriguez struggles or misses significant time, the Orioles could quickly fall from division contenders to also-rans. The AL East is a brutal place to be without pitching, and right now, Baltimore doesn’t have enough of it.

Did the Orioles make a mistake moving the Fences?

Last year, the Orioles moved the left-field wall back to help their pitchers, and it worked. Camden Yards, once a launching pad for home runs, became far more pitcher-friendly, helping Baltimore’s staff limit damage. But this offseason, they made a surprising decision: they brought the fences in again. Now, with a rotation that looks somewhat thin, that move could come back to haunt them. A ballpark that once provided a cushion for their arms might now amplify their biggest weakness—lack of starting pitching depth.

This decision would have made more sense if Baltimore had a deep, overpowering rotation. Instead, they have Corbin Burnes and a bunch of uncertainty. If Grayson Rodriguez’s elbow issues persist and Kyle Bradish remains sidelined, the Orioles will be forced to rely on less dominant starters in a stadium that could punish mistakes. It’s possible the team wanted to give their young power hitters a boost, but in a season where pitching could make or break them, this might be the worst possible time to shrink the ballpark.

In the end, their decision to move the fences in could turn their home field into a double-edged sword, helping their offense while exposing their rotation. With their ongoing pitching issues, did the Orioles just make a fatal miscalculation at the worst possible time?