Fans were all hopeful that the tight 5-3 win over Mexico on Monday catapulted Team USA toward a quarterfinal berth. All they needed was a win over Team Italy on Tuesday night to lock it in. But things didn’t go as planned.

The game against Italy is done and dusted, and in a surprising twist, Team USA got routed. Instead of celebrating qualification, the U.S. now finds itself in a tricky spot. So let’s break down the remaining scenarios and possible pathways that could still see Team USA sneak into the quarterfinals or determine their tournament hopes.

What’s next for USA Baseball? How does the loss against Italy impact their WBC dream?

With Team Great Britain and Brazil already eliminated, Pool B has essentially turned into a three-team race for the two quarterfinal spots. Team USA, Italy, and Mexico are in contention, though their paths to the final eight look very different at this point.

After the loss to Italy, Team USA finished pool play with a 3–1 record. That means everything now hinges on the final Pool B matchup between Italy and Mexico on Wednesday.

If Italy manages to beat Mexico, the situation becomes straightforward. Italy would finish the pool stage 4–0 and claim the top spot, while the USA would move on as the second seed, safely booking their place in the quarterfinals.

However, if Mexico beats Italy, things get complicated.

That result would create a three-way tie at 3–1 between the USA, Italy, and Mexico. And since each of those teams would be 1–1 against one another, the standings would have to be decided by the next tiebreaker.

The tournament would then look at the run-allowed quotient. That means dividing the number of runs allowed by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the tied teams. And that’s where the U.S. could run into serious trouble. Their heavy loss to Italy, where they allowed eight runs in just six innings, significantly damages that quotient.

So the equation is pretty simple for American fans right now: root for Italy.

What are the chances of the USA qualifying for the quarterfinals? Know them

If Mexico wins that game, Pool B would end up with a three-way tie at 3–1 between the USA, Italy, and Mexico. That’s when the tournament’s tiebreaker rules would come into play, and the U.S. would need the numbers to fall their way to sneak into the top two.

The USA has allowed 11 runs in 54 outs (.2037 runs per out). Mexico has allowed five runs in 24 outs (.2083) and Italy has allowed six runs while recording 27 outs (.2222). The lowest of those numbers is preferred.

“Scenarios for Italy vs Mexico tomorrow, assuming it’s nine innings: Italy wins: Italy + USA advance. Mexico wins and scores 6 or more runs: Mexico + USA advance. Mexico wins and scores less than 5 runs: Mexico + Italy advance,” Gordo shared via X. So, anything less than Italy’s win can be risky for the Stars and Stripes.

Now, in case of tiebreakers, Mexico is at an advantage.

Before Tuesday’s game, Mexico actually had a pretty high run-allowed quotient, around .208. They gave up five runs in just eight innings (24 outs) against Team USA. But now the situation has shifted.

With the U.S. surrendering eight runs to Italy, their own quotient has taken a serious hit, which makes the potential tiebreaker scenario much tougher for them.

Still, this is baseball, and things can flip quickly. For now, we need to wait for the Italy vs. Mexico matchup and find out whether the numbers somehow swing back in Team USA’s favor.