Blame it on their aggressive offseason that the Toronto Blue Jays are projected to have a payroll of over $ 307 million in 2026. This makes them eligible for a $32 million luxury tax penalty. By exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the CBT, the Blue Jays received a 10-pick penalty on their first selections and forfeited several later-round draft picks. But does that mean the Jays could stay low by the trade deadline? Ken Rosenthal doesn’t think so.

Rosenthal predicted the Jays would still go all guns blazing by the deadline, considering their multiple needs.

“Even though the Blue Jays are over the highest luxury tax threshold, they’re still willing to take on money at the trade deadline…” Rosenthal said via Foul Territory.

Well, the Blue Jays are currently the third most expensive team, but their stats say otherwise. They are one game back of a Wild Card, and two games under .500. They are ranked 23rd in terms of scoring runs (308) and scoring home runs (75). Having such numbers despite the team investing $300 million combined on Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, and Tyler Rogers is what makes them an obvious buyer at the deadline.

The Blue Jays are the 2025 World Series finalists, and they cannot miss a playoff berth this year. According to Rosenthal, the owners would infuse more money to bring some new names by the deadline. But bringing new names would not solve the issue. “The first thing that has to happen. Vladimir Guerrero jr’s got to start hitting for power again,” Rosenthal added.

Guerrero is enduring a shocking power drought in the 2026 season. Despite securing a 14-year, $500 million contract and posting an iconic postseason last year, he managed just three home runs in his first 68 games, causing the Blue Jays’ offense to stumble. He just scored another homer against the Boston Red Sox, but it is too little to justify. Apart from Guerrero, a few more gaps for the Blue Jays to fill in.

“I was told a high contact hitter, kind of someone who would fit into their system right, and obviously a right-handed hitting outfielder,” Rosenthal predicted.

Except for George Springer, the Jays’ outfield is heavily left-handed, and current right-handed options have struggled at the plate. Moreover, the starting rotation has struggled to pitch deep into games, placing a heavy, unsustainable burden on the bullpen. The team needs reliable starters and dominant late-inning relievers. So, there are multiple needs to fill in, and rather than treating the deadline as a luxury, the Blue Jays are forced to splash in more money to land a few more. 

A few names rumored with the Blue Jays

“San Francisco Giants second baseman Luis Arraez might make sense as the contact guy, but his chase rate is nearly as high as the Jays’ league-leading 34 percent mark,” Rosenthal predicted. The Jays are widely reported as an ideal fit for Arraez, given his track record as a multiple-time batting champion. While his defensive value was historically a concern, an offseason under Giants infield coach Ron Washington has helped transform Arraez into a reliable, plus defender at second base. Thus, making him an even more attractive piece for contending teams like Toronto.

Moreover, placing Arraez means the Jays need to move Ernie Clement, their best slugger of 2026, from second to third, dislocating Kazuma Okamoto from third.

In terms of pitching, landing Tarik Skubal could be the biggest move for the Blue Jays. With the Blue Jays needing to shore up a rotation decimated by injuries to pitchers like Max Scherzer, José Berríos, and Shane Bieber, Skubal is seen as the ultimate deadline dream target to make a deep playoff push. If Rosenthal’s prediction proves right, the Jays could splash all for Skubal.

If last offseason is any indication, a blockbuster trade deadline is around the corner for the Jays.