The Toronto Blue Jays signed future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer to a one-year, $15.5 million deal earlier this year. Scherzer, at that time, joined a veteran company of rotation already featuring players like Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt. However, Scherzer’s season started with a concerning outing against Baltimore on March 29.

He lasted just three innings in his debut before a right thumb inflammation sent him to the IL for over two months until late June. But since his return, the 41-year-old has been nothing short of spectacular, posting a 5-2 record with a solid 3.82 ERA in 12 starts.

After one of his recent outings against the Cubs in mid-August, when he held just 73 pitches to burn through the first seven innings, manager John Schneider said, “Two thumbs up,” as a sign that Schrezer no longer has the thumbs issue. And most especially in August, the Mad Max has four wins over his 5 starts. And this incredible return to his old self has sparked talk of a contract extension.

MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson dropped an update on TSN’s OverDrive show when asked about Scherzer’s chances of returning. “Give me 30%,” Matheson started.

“Give me a one-third-ish odds, because at this point in Max Scherzer’s career, I would ask you guys. What’s changed since last year? Last year, he was kind of taking a chance on the Blue Jays in the winter. They were projected to win 78- 79 games. This was not supposed to happen.” 

Matheson explained his reasoning, “He’s not 31, he’s 41. And you’ve only got so many cracks at this left. So, if it’s worked in Toronto, if it’s worked with Pete Walker, the pitching coach, you like being around Kevin Gausman, we’ll see what happens with Shane Bieber, this coaching staff, if you’re happy here and you’re winning and you’re getting paid, makes a lot of sense. “

And most importantly, “the Jays will need at least another starter, a real starter in free agency next year, not just a depth guy, “ Matheson added. But still, “winning can convince you to do a lot of things. If they go on a playoff run here, there’s going to be a lot of reasons to run it back, even at 41 going on 42,”  Matheson said at the end.

Rotation reality.. who stays, who leaves

Toronto currently rides a veteran-first rotation led by Kevin Gausman and José Berríos. Both Chris Bassitt and Scherzer pitched well but are set to become free agents. This would leave two massive voids in the starting rotation.

And thankfully, the team has internal options like Alek Manoah, a former Cy Young finalist is expected back from surgery. Bowden Francis is also another option for the team. Behind them, top prospect Trey Yesavage is knocking on the door. And one can’t ignore Shane Bieber’s health, as he can opt out if he rediscovers full velocity.

And the payroll picture complicates any reunion, as Bo Bichette’s looming extension demands priority. His new deal could consume significant salary space and could affect Scherzer’s contract in the upcoming winter.

But despite all of that, the Blue Jays will certainly need to sign at least one proven starter. The question is, should that starter be Max Scherzer?

And here, several factors are working against this reunion.

First and foremost is Scherzer’s age and health. So, committing a large salary to a 41-year-old with a recent injury history is a huge risk for any team.

Second, His amazing performance this season could receive bigger offers from other teams in free agency that the Jays can not match, even if they want to.

And finally, there’s always the chance Scherzer simply decides to retire as he has nothing left to prove in his career anymore. Fans would love to see him stay, but it’s very possible he walks away.