A major deadline is coming on December 1 for Major League Baseball. The league and the players’ union must agree on a new contract. If they fail, the sport could shut down in a lockout. Hall of Fame pitcher and 1995 World Series champion, John Smoltz, is warning everyone before it is too late.

“We know that if they don’t get this worked out, baseball will suffer,” Smoltz told Fox News Digital. “They cannot afford to have a stoppage with all the good that has been done and all the great games that have been played lately with the World Series.”

He fears that a lockout will ruin the sport’s recent success. More people are watching MLB games in 2026. National TV ratings are up by 44% compared to last year. Fans in Japan are also watching in record numbers.

Netflix reported that over 31 million people in Japan streamed the 2026 World Baseball Classic, making it the most-watched event in the platform’s history there. Nearly 18 million watched the Japan versus Australia game alone. Also, the recent MLB Tokyo Series averaged over 24 million viewers per game in Japan.

A lockout and a delayed 2027 season could drive the fans away. This would undo all the good that has happened to the sport recently. It would also cost stadium workers millions of dollars in lost pay.

The sport has suffered like this before. The 1994-95 player strike canceled the World Series, and the league lost around $1 billion. It took years for fans to return to the ballparks. According to a 2002 CBS News report, before the 1994 strike, MLB averaged more than 31,600 fans per game. When baseball returned in 1995, attendance fell by almost 20 percent to 25,260.

Recently, the league had a 99-day lockout in the winter of 2021-22. This delayed spring training and tested the fans’ patience all over again.

The biggest flashpoint between MLB and MLBPA now is the salary cap. MLBPA initially proposed a $150 million salary floor. They also demanded that the luxury tax threshold be set at $300 million next year. MLB countered that with a proposal to implement a hard salary cap of $245.3 million and a salary floor of $171.2 million, along with a 50-50 revenue split.

As per MLB, “The MLBPA’s proposal would reduce the amount transferred to lower-revenue clubs, weaken the Competitive Balance Tax, and lead to even more payroll disparity than exists today.”

They even cited the Dodgers as an example. The Dodgers are spending $413 million on players in 2026, and because they spend so much, they owe $162 million in luxury tax this year. But if the threshold gets raised, the Dodgers need to pay less, furthering the disparity, and this will give them the financial edge over the smaller teams. Smoltz also agreed on that point.

“There’s a competition issue in baseball and a disparity that’s bigger than ever. And I think a lot of it’s been on purpose to get to this point, when you have the Dodgers spending beyond belief and the Mets spending beyond belief. Until recently, nothing guaranteed a championship,” Smoltz added.

“Of course I do,” even MLB commissioner Rob Manfred fears a potential lockout. But Manfred’s other proposal could also create a tussle between the two parties.

MLB’s centralized media plan could be another flashpoint

It is no longer a secret that Manfred wants to have bundled media rights for all 30 teams, similar to the NFL.

“We got a lot of people (who) watch every single day,” the MLB commissioner said about creating a single window for the fans to watch all the games.

MLB targets the expiration of current rights in 2028. And to bypass failing Regional Sports Networks (RSNs) and maximize the sport’s total revenue.

Reportedly, MLB has already taken over local media operations for several franchises (Padres and Guardians) to protect revenue streams following the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy. But it would face resistance from the big-market teams like the Dodgers.

The Dodgers currently earn a staggering average of $334 million annually through 2038 from a highly lucrative deal with Charter’s SportsNet LA. Now, centralizing local media rights means this massive sum would be pooled with all 30 teams and distributed evenly. Thus, severely diminishing the Dodgers’ financial advantage. So, there are several flashpoints active that would keep the MLB executives busy in the next few months. 

But in case of a lockout, it will be the fans, the biggest stakeholders of the sport, who will suffer.