Last winter, the New York Yankees signed ace Max Fried to an eight-year, $218 million contract, setting a new record for a left-handed pitcher that surpassed the huge contracts like David Price’s $217 million contract from the Red Sox a year earlier and Clayton Kershaw’s $215 million mark from the Dodgers. Now, a similar storm is brewing in the Houston Astros, and it could blow their own ace right out of town.

During a recent MLB Network show, insider Jon Heyman warned that the teams will use Fried’s record deal as the starting point for Framber Valdez. “Well, I think I’m sure that they’re going to compare him to Max Fried, who got the record for a left-handed free agent at age 32, $218 million,” Heyman said. Then, Heyman justified the reason for the 31-year-old south paw, saying, “I think he’s a quite a bit underrated. Since 2020, he has the most wins, and this is a little bit of a surprise, the most innings pitched per start, even above Wheeler and Verlander.”

Heyman further praised Valdez as a “terrific pitcher” with a 12-7 record and a 3.18 ERA this season. “Certainly, the Astros or almost any other big market team could be in play for Framber,” Heyman said.

Fried earned that massive contract when he posted a stunning 2.81 ERA over his last five seasons in Atlanta–best among MLB starting pitchers over that span. Now, Houston’s ace is a strong case of his own with his strong 2025 season and advanced stats that show he ranked 98th percentile for inducing ground balls as per Baseball Savant. And his record of 67-38 with an ERA of 3.14 and 854 strikeouts in 139 appearances since 2021 shows his consistency. 

This sets up massive pressure for the Houston front office as Valdez’s next market value could be around six years  $204.9 million, an average of $34.2 million as per Spotrac estimation. But…

The decision isn’t just about one player

Besides Valdez, backup catcher Victor Caratini and infielder Brendan Rodgers, and relief pitcher Hector Neris will also be in the free agent market, and this puts a giant spotlight on the Valdez negotiations. The Astros already lost a star in Kyle Tucker last winter, so losing Valdez this offseason will be disastrous for the Texas outfit.

And the Astros’ biggest issue in 2025 isn’t pitching, it’s their offense. Despite having a good team batting average, the Astros are only ranked twenty-third in runs scored with 580. They simply aren’t driving runners in, and they rank a lowly 25th in walk percentage.

Meanwhile, starting pitching looks stable with Hunter Brown’s 2.34 ERA and Valdez’s steadiness ranking 7th in the majors with a 3.82 team ERA. But Lance McCullers Jr. has struggled with a 6.97 ERA behind them since his return. So, losing Valdez would turn that depth into a crisis in real time.

Bottom line: everything brings us to the open market, which presents other left-handed pitchers like Phillies Ranger Suárez with a 10-6 record and a better 3.02 ERA and younger alternatives. Other options, like pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, Shota Imanaga, Steven Matz, Patrick Corbin, and Jordan Montgomery, are also in the mix, and this will no doubt affect the Valdez contract extension.