FanGraphs might give the Red Sox an 89.9% chance to make the playoffs, but that number doesn’t tell the whole story. With just a week left in the regular season and six games still to play, Boston’s path isn’t as simple as the odds suggest. Plus, they didn’t help themselves either.

The BoSox dropped the series finale to the Rays by 7-3 after looking sharp in the first two games. The bats went quiet after racking up 17 runs earlier in the series. But even at that, Alex Bregman remains upbeat, insisting the team has what it takes.

“It’s way too late in the year. We’ve got to keep going. We’ve got to keep pushing forward, get a good off-day, and get ready to go to Toronto. That’s it — plain and simple.” Bregman sounded confident even after losing the third game against the Rays.

The AL East picture has been pretty straightforward…

The Blue Jays are sitting comfortably as the top seed, with the Yankees and Red Sox hanging onto the Wild Card spots. And now, the Red Sox are set to face the top-seeded Blue Jays. While the result will matter for the Jays to ensure their home-field advantage, for the Red Sox, it’s survival.

Meanwhile, what no one saw coming, though, is Cleveland charging into the race on the back of a 10-game winning streak. They swept the Tigers, and suddenly they’re just one game behind Boston: Closer to a division title than anyone thought a couple of weeks ago.

So where does that leave the Sox?

Technically, the Red Sox are only up a game on their closest Wild Card challengers. But thanks to tiebreakers over both Cleveland and Houston, it’s more like a two-game edge with six left to play. That means if Boston can just play .500 baseball down the stretch, they can make their way to the playoffs. In other words, winning half of these last six games, and they’re very likely Wild Card-bound!

But…

The Red Sox’s offense slump might bring a twist

Playing .500 for the next week shouldn’t come as a difficult task for the Red Sox, but their dwindling offense is making things worse.

By June, things really started to click for the Red Sox offense. That stretch kicked off with a 13-6 win over the Reds on June 30, and over the next 55 games, the Red Sox averaged 5.4 runs a game! They were hitting .265 (third-best in MLB) and posted a .332 OBP. And in the end, an impressive 37-18 record followed.

However, the success story ended there…

The Red Sox’s offensive success hit a wall when Roman Anthony went down with an injury on September 2. And since then, things have dipped. Reportedly, in the next 10 games without him, Boston’s hitting just .244 with a .296 OBP, managing only 4.1 runs a game. Now compare with the previous stats, and you will see how their offense is struggling. Combine that with September struggles from key bats like Ceddanne Rafaela (.105), Alex Bregman (.216), and Jarren Duran (.227), and the lineup suddenly looks thin.

So, while Bregman’s confidence and optimism are still there, whether it translates on the field remains to be seen.