Scottie Scheffler has come close to winning more times than anyone would like to count this season. He finished one shot behind Rory McIlroy at the Masters, lost to Matt Fitzpatrick in a playoff at the RBC Heritage, and came up six strokes short of Wyndham Clark at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills.

And then, at the Travelers Championship last week, he shot a 60 in round two and holed several clutch par putts on rain-softened greens on Sunday evening. However, the forced playoff left him short of the win. Golf Channel analyst Rex Hoggard and Ryan Lavner broke it all down, and their conclusion was not that Scheffler is struggling. It was almost the opposite.

“And I just think statistically, at least me personally, I feel like I’ve come up empty trying to come up with a specific reason about what is exactly wrong this time of year, and it just seems like it’s another example of this season of just being so fractionally off that he can’t deliver,” Rex Hoggard said in the discussion.

It would be wrong to say that Scheffler has had a bad season. He has had nine top-10 finishes in 14 starts this season. He finished as runner-up in four tournaments: the Travelers Championship, the Masters, the RBC Heritage, and the Cadillac Championship.

However, the analysts are clear that the swing and the form slump are not the issue. Instead, it’s the smallest of the margins on the biggest moment. Golf analyst Ryan Lavner backed that up by drawing a comparison to 2023. Scheffler was statistically dominant the entire season and even posted 17 top-10 finishes. However, he captured just two wins, at the WM Phoenix Open and the Players Championship.

Ryan Lavner was quick to point out, “It really came down to variance. It came down to, situationally, it came down to just sort of one or two shots that went the other way. Maybe it’s a lip out, maybe it’s a misread, maybe it’s bad speed control,” he said.

At the Travelers Championship, the analysts pointed out that he had at least three genuine chances to win outright before it even got to the playoff, including a lip out on 17 in regulation. But there was one specific detail the two kept returning to. Scheffler’s speed control on the 18th green at TPC River Highlands.

“Speed control on the 18th green in particular was a little bit off for Scottie Scheffler, but I think overall his ball striking was the cleanest it had been to date. I think he can feel pretty good about where the state of his game is heading into the year’s final major,” he continued.

Saturday (Round 3): On the 18th, Scheffler’s approach ran a yard too deep and trickled off the green onto the fringe. From 25 feet, he jammed his first putt well past the hole and could not convert the comebacker, three-putting for bogey. Hovland then made a 6-foot birdie on the same hole. A two-shot swing that handed the Norwegian the 54-hole lead.

Sunday (Round 4, regulation): At the 72nd hole, Scheffler again gave his first putt too much pace, sending a 30-footer 8½ feet past the hole. He then drained the par comebacker to force the playoff. A clutch make, but one that should never have been necessary.

Monday (Playoff): On the same par-4 18th, Scheffler hit his approach to five feet, a genuine birdie look to win the tournament. Hovland made his from eight feet first, piling on the pressure. Scheffler’s birdie attempt caught the left lip and spun out. “I hit it on my line — I think it was just a little bit firm,” Scheffler said.

Despite the disappointing finish, analysts remain confident that Scheffler’s game is trending in the right direction. Scheffler himself echoed that assessment after the round, pointing to his ball-striking as a major positive.

“Ball striking is definitely in a good spot. That was some of the best I’ve hit all season, which is a good spot. Obviously I think just a little bit; I’m a little disappointed with the results of today. But, yeah, I did a good job of keeping myself in the tournament last night and made the nice putt to close out last night, so I’m trying to remember that one. Scheffler added,

With the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale beginning on July 16, Scheffler will have another opportunity to turn the encouraging signs into victory. If his ball-striking continues at this level, and the razor-thin margins finally swing his way, the wait for another major title may not be much longer.