A casual fan may find it perplexing. A step-up fight should ideally lead to a crown. But in Vergil Ortiz Jr.’s case, it could lead straight to “Boots”! Jokes aside, that scenario could easily become a 2026 reality. Much has been said about a potential Ortiz Jr. vs. Jaron “Boots” Ennis showdown. Among all the major title fights that took place this year and those planned for the next, it remains the one non-title clash fans collectively crave.

However, much depends on the outcome of the upcoming fight in Fort Worth, Texas. The Dickies Arena in the North Central Texas city will host the Golden Boy card, where Vergil Ortiz Jr. headlines the DAZN-streamed show against light middleweight contender Erickson Lubin. A win could potentially set Ortiz Jr. up for a showdown with Boots. Otherwise, he’ll have to face the critics. Ahead of the high-stakes bout, let’s see how the two stack up.

Predicting Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs. Erickson Lubin: Who has better stats and a record?

In terms of experience, Lubin, who turned 30 on October 1, holds the edge over the Grand Prairie-born interim champion. The Floridian turned pro in 2013 and has 29 bouts, with 27 wins. His only two losses came against Jermell Charlo and Sebastian Fundora.

Vergil Ortiz Jr., on the other hand, began his professional career three years later. With 22 fights, he may have fewer bouts than the veteran, but the 27-year-old makes up for it with a spotless, undefeated record. Ortiz Jr. has yet to taste defeat.

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With nearly 91% of his wins coming by knockout, Ortiz Jr. boasts a higher KO rate than Lubin, who still holds an impressive 70% stoppage rate.

Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs. Erickson Lubin: Height, weight, reach comparison, and more

When it comes to physical attributes, it’s a case of give and take. At 5’10” (178 cm), the Texan stands one inch taller than Lubin, who measures 5″9″ (177 cm). However, Lubin holds the advantage in reach – 74.5 inches (189 cm) compared to Ortiz Jr.’s 70 inches (178 cm).

The official weigh-ins are yet to take place, but their previous fight stats provide some clues. Nine months ago, Ortiz Jr. weighed in at 153 pounds for his bout against Israil Madrimov, while Lubin tipped the scales at 153.4 pounds when he faced Ardreal Holmes in May.

Fight prediction

Fans and oddsmakers seem to have already made up their minds. Most are backing the interim champion. With an overwhelming 86% win probability, Vergil Ortiz Jr. enters as a clear favorite against Erickson Lubin, the +580 underdog.

Much of that confidence comes from Ortiz Jr.’s recent string of emphatic victories. His reputation as a knockout artist has become a foregone conclusion. What strengthens his case even further is his record of beating top-tier opponents.

It started with last year’s fight against Serhii Bohachuk. And if the majority decision left any doubt, his dominant victory over Israil Madrimov erased it completely.

Lubin, meanwhile, bounced back after his loss to Charlo and even captured the WBC Silver title. But his ninth-round stoppage defeat to Fundora reignited questions about his durability. Though he has since strung together some solid wins, they came against non-elite opponents.

Adding to the challenge, he’ll face Ortiz Jr. in the Texan’s backyard.

Still, Ortiz Jr. cannot afford to underestimate Lubin. The veteran knows this might be one of his last chances to revive his title hopes. Expect him to come out strong, applying pressure in the early rounds and looking for a quick knockout.

Since Ortiz Jr. hasn’t faced a southpaw since Michael McKinson three years ago, he may need a few rounds to find his rhythm. But once he settles in, the pressure-fighting Texan is likely to take over.

So come Saturday night, fans can expect fireworks in Fort Worth.

How do you think Erickson Lubin can pull off an upset against Vergil Ortiz Jr.?