Sure, the noise around the Floyd Mayweather–Manny Pacquiao rematch cannot be denied, and among them, some believe that the Filipino icon will avenge his 2015 loss and dull Mayweather’s spotless record. But the man who shared the ring with Pacquiao feels history might repeat itself.

Adrien Broner, who fought the 8-division champion 7 years ago, believes the outcome of the September 19 bout will be similar to their 2015 face-off. Talks around their Netflix sequel, scheduled at the Sphere in Las Vegas, created a stir, but things slowed down after Floyd Mayweather said the fight would be an exhibition and not a real bout. Manny Pacquiao maintains that it will be a professional fight. With deadlines closing in, Broner believes the situation carries added risk, particularly for Pacquiao.

“I think it’s going to serve the purpose. It’s going to be a great fight to watch,” he told a reporter. “Pacquiao is definitely coming to fight. It’s going to be an exciting fight.”

Still, he is firm on the outcome.

“I still don’t think he can beat Floyd,” Broner added. “No matter what.”

What the 36-year-old is saying reflects his own experience. Pacquiao routed Adrien Broner in 2019 when they met for the former’s WBA welterweight title. After that dominant, unanimous decision, his career never fully regained momentum, with long layoffs slowing him down. What’s more, Broner’s on-and-off relationship with Mayweather adds another twist to his assessment.

Earlier, Mayweather’s camp shared something similar.

“I think that the fight is probably going to be pretty much the same (as last time), but both of them are not the same fighters that they once was,” his uncle, Jeff Mayweather, said. “The names are the same, but the fighters, they are not. They have both aged, and, I’m going to be honest, the last fight with Pacquiao, when he fought Barrios, that fight looked like crap to me.

“He looked like crap. Even though the fight was close, and I understand that the fight was close, the greatness of Pacquiao was gone. I didn’t see it; I didn’t even see an inkling of it.”

Adding another layer to the discussion, champion David Benavidez, who faces Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez on May 2, believes Mayweather still gets the job done if he steps in as his older version. But the 47-year-old still has full faith in himself.

Manny Pacquiao pushes forward as Floyd Mayweather raises doubts

Pacquiao remains gung-ho about his chances and believes Mayweather is “scared” of losing, pointing to what he sees as delay tactics while insisting their September showdown will not be an exhibition match.

That back-and-forth brings Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 into sharper focus 11 years after their first meeting at the MGM Grand. With Mayweather and Pacquiao’s welterweight titles on the line, the unification bout ended with the American winning by unanimous decision.

While it set records as the richest fight in boxing history, the contest itself fell short of expectations, as both fighters failed to perform at their best. Even now, that outcome still fuels the central question: would the two look any different from their first meeting when they were in their prime?

And even if all hurdles are cleared, a finalized professional bout still favors Pacquiao over Mayweather.

He ended a four-year retirement last year, returning to face a reigning champion in a professional bout. He delivered a well-received performance, even if the result fell short of expectations. In contrast, Mayweather has only competed in exhibitions, facing influencers like Logan Paul and Deji Olatunji, with his most recent outing against John Gotti III.

That contrast says it all. The closer this fight gets to reality, the more the risk appears to tilt toward the 50-0 legend.