“Competition is a drug. Competition is my life. I love it,” said an overzealous Daniil Medvedev earlier this year. Hungry for the win and thriving off the boos from the crowd over his on-court tantrums, the Russian star has his sights set on the Indian Wells Masters. He holds a strong record at Tennis Paradise; however, his upcoming rival is not to be written off. He is slated to lock horns with Alex Michelsen in the third round of the BNP Paribas Open on Monday, March 10. What’s the probability of the Russian firebrand advancing further in the Indian Wells? Let’s find out.

Michelsen vs Medvedev: Preview

Alex Michelsen arrived in the Californian desert on the back of a second-round exit in Acapulco. Seeded No. 31, he received a bye in the first round before squaring off against compatriot Colton Smith in R2. Despite finding himself a break down in the second set, the American held his ground as he bounced back to win the contest 6-3, 6-4. With this, the 20-year-old also booked a third-round appearance for the first time at the Masters 1000 event.

Meanwhile, Meddy also received a bye in the first round due to his seeding. The fifth seed jetted for the Sunshine Double after finishing as a quarterfinalist against Tallon Griekspoor in Dubai. Without wasting much energy, the Russian sensation made short work of his second-round opponent in Indian Wells, putting on a dominant display to defeat Yunchaokete Bu of China in straight sets, 6-2, 6-2.

Michelsen vs Medvedev: Head-to-Head

These two players have never crossed paths on the tour. The duo’s third-round encounter in California will count as their first-ever meet and, as a result, their head-to-head stands nil at 0-0.

Prediction: Daniil Medvedev to win in three sets

Former US Open champion Medvedev has won 9 out of his 15 matches so far in 2025. He endured a slow start to the season with an R2 exit at the Australian Open but seemed to be turning the corner in the next two events, although he didn’t achieve quite as much success as he would have liked. The Russian star finished as a semifinalist at the Open 13 Provence in Marseille and backed that result by reaching the quarterfinals in Doha and Dubai.

Meddy juggles a balanced style of play, with his tactics usually relying on heavy counterpunching. However, the former World No. 1 can switch from playing defensive to offensive in no time, and add to that his service as well.

The Russian player recorded an impressive first serve stat in his previous match, claiming 19 out of 21 points with three aces. To top it off, Medvedev also reached the final of the Indian Wells last year. So, all odds favor the 29-year-old. However, his younger rival’s promising 2025 season is not to be taken lightly.

Michelsen has registered 11 wins out of 18 matches played this year. He commenced the season with a second-round finish in Brisbane and later reached the quarterfinal of the ASB Classic and the semifinal of the Delray Beach Open. The youngster went well in the first Grand Slam of the season as well, recording a fourth-round outing at Melbourne Park. However, his peculiar gameplay will likely not be as restrictive for Meddy.

The American sensation has a decent serve that has fetched him a total of 24 aces in his last six contests. However, he has also produced a worrisome 19 double faults during that period, which can be advantageous for Medvedev. Though Michelson flaunts a strong backhand and is aggressive with his game, Meddy’s superior experience in Tennis Paradise should see him prevail.