When it comes to men’s tennis, there are two players who are ruling the circuit currently. Well, no prizes for guessing, as Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have dominated men’s tennis over the past couple of years. Be it Grand Slams or big tournaments like the Masters 1000 events, one can often find them on the podium, with the pair splitting the last 8 Slams between them. Moreover, their dominance is well reflected in the ATP rankings, with a big gulf between Sinner in 2nd and Alexander Zverev in 3rd. The race to year-end World No. 1 ranking is a 2-horse race, so here’s a look at how they can each finish the season in that top spot.

Carlos Alcaraz rose to No. 1 in the rankings after his U.S. Open triumph over Jannik Sinner, a victory that brought him 2,000 points. Twelve months earlier, he had also beaten Sinner in the China Open final, a result that left the two with 500 and 330 points to defend this week. Sinner, meanwhile, not only protected his finalist points but went one better. He defeated Learner Tien in Wednesday’s Beijing final, raising his total to 10,950 points. That leaves him just 590 behind Alcaraz.

The picture shifted, however, when Alcaraz withdrew from the Shanghai Masters after injuring his ankle in the opening round of the Japan Open. He reached the Shanghai quarterfinals in 2024, where he lost to Tomas Machac, a run worth 200 points. With those points now unprotected, his total will fall to 11,340 once the rankings update. Even so, the 22-year-old will hold on to No. 1. Sinner arrives in Shanghai as the reigning champion, having beaten Novak Djokovic to claim the 2024 title. That victory earned him 1,000 points, all of which he must defend this year. Unless he lifts the trophy again, the gap between him and Alcaraz will remain.

The Italian faces a monumental challenge ahead and will have to win in Shanghai and then Vienna to take back the crown. But things don’t look as straightforward as it sounds. Sinner is also the defending champion at the ATP Finals and will be defending 1,500 points whereas Alcaraz has to defend just 200 points. Even if Sinner becomes the World Number 1 on October 27th, he could lose it the next week due to the ATP Finals points drop. For him to reclaim the top spot, he’ll have to hope that he wins the ATP Finals and that Alcaraz is unable to make a deep run at the tournament.

Meanwhile, Sinner hasn’t hidden his feelings about losing the top spot to Alcaraz after the US Open. Although he was disappointed with it, the Italian star was all praise for Alcaraz for getting there.

Jannik Sinner heaps praise on Carlos Alcaraz

Despite being on opposite ends of the court in some big encounters, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have always maintained a good bond on and off the court. With mutual respect between the two, they have displayed true sportsman spirit. Moreover, Sinner was among the first ones to congratulate Alcaraz on being the World Number 1 with a special message.

He said, “Carlos has been really exceptional in recent months: he has played more tournaments than me and has always expressed a very high level, winning several titles. Having achieved those extraordinary results, he deserved to become world number 1. There are still several important tournaments between now and the end of the season and I will give my best. The only thing I can say is that I am very satisfied with my season and I don’t pay too much attention to the ATP ranking.”

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That said, Sinner himself didn’t rule out his chances at taking the top spot back from Alcaraz. “The season’s not over yet,” he said at the China Open. “We still have here. We have Shanghai, very big. We have Paris, which is very big. Turin, Davis Cup. Still big tournaments to come. Obviously the biggest, they are gone, with the Grand Slams, and we split those.”

Meanwhile, Jannik will have his task cut out if he has to finish at the top of the ATP rankings chart at the end of the season. Who do you think will enter the new season as the World Number 1? Let us know your views in the comments below.