2024 Aryna Sabalenka would probably wince at her 2025 version. After a wonderful North American hard-court campaign last year, winning the Australian Open and the US Open. The Grand Slams, however, have hardly been kind to the Belarusian this year. At AO, it was Madison Keys in the finals, whereas the All England Club saw the world number one go down to 12th-ranked US star Amanda Anisimova (6-4, 4-6, 6-4) in the semi-finals. What’s next for the world number one now?

Truth be told, not much. This year, Sabalenka has contested seven finals so far and has won only three titles in those attempts (Brisbane, Miami, and Madrid). And by the looks of it, she’s in no mood for any more heartbreak. Sharing a statement, the 27-year-old has decided to withdraw from the WTA event in Canada. She cited fatigue as the sole reason behind the move, informing in a press statement: “I’m looking forward to kicking off the North American hard-court swing, but to give myself the best chance for success this season, I’ve decided it’s in my best interest to skip Montreal.” 

During her announcement, she also revealed that she will miss her amazing Canadian fans and claimed that she’s looking forward to returning to this event in the next season. Tournament director Valerie Tetreault expressed her disappointment to the news, saying, “We’re obviously disappointed that Aryna won’t be with us this year.” Notably, other than Sabalenka, her “soulmate“, Paula Badosa has also withdrawn her name from this tournament due to an injury. As a result of these withdrawals, it has now opened the doors for players like America’s Caty McNally and Japan’s Moyuka Uchijima.

The 23-year-old McNally, is currently ranked 123 in the world, as per WTA Tennis‘ official website. But she recently won a title at the WTA 125K Newport, US. Guess who she defeated in the final? In the title-decider match, she defeated the 2025 HSBC Championships winner, Tatjana Maria, by 2-6,6-4,6-2. For the unversed, McNally achieved a career-best singles ranking and WTA doubles ranking of No. 54 (May 2023)  and No. 11 (April 2022), respectively. Her most notable performances came alongside Coco Gauff—a partnership fans endearingly call ‘McCoco’—picking up three doubles titles. The duo also reached the 2021 US Open final, before McNally reached the finals next year again with US star Taylor Townsend.

As things stand, Aryna Sabalenka will probably be seen yet again in action at the Cincinnati Open, which is scheduled to take place in early August. So, that’s going to be her real preparatory stage ahead of her title defense campaign at the 2025 US Open.

What are Sabalenka’s chances at this year’s US Open, though?

Former ATP pro analyzes Aryna Sabalenka’s chances at the 2025 US Open

This year, Aryna Sabalenka has managed to put up a win-loss record of 47-9 this season. Despite her SF exit at SW19, Aryna Sabalenka still has a lead of 1400 points in the year-end race for number one against the Wimbledon champion, Iga Swiatek. Following her defeat at Wimbledon, Sabalenka admitted that she kept losing in the latter stages of the major tournaments in 2025 due to various reasons, the primary one being self-doubt.

In her post-match press conference, she claimed that she has to constantly remind herself how strong she is and how brave she has to be to win these battles. According to Sabalenka, she needs to be more confident in her shots, decisions, and bring more trust to her game. “It seems like in all of these three tough defeats in the Slams, for me, I wasn’t trusting myself. And every time that I remind myself ‘you have to trust’, ‘you can do literally anything on the court, every time I show my best tennis. So I think maybe with the US Open left, I just have to trust myself and go for it,” said Sabalenka. What else did she say after the match, though?

Sabalenka is now aiming to bring in better results at New York, but can she beat the likes of Iga Swiatek and others and put herself yet again as a real contender for the majors? According to the former American tennis player, John Isner, “All credit to Iga, but I think I am probably going to ride with Sabalenka as the favourite for the US Open. I think she has proven on all surfaces she can play so big and dominant and blow women off the court in some of these matches with her aggressive play.“

However, having said that, he also said Swiatek is not too far behind at all. Who will be your pick, though, at the 2025 US Open?